Based on the market trends on January 11, ETH has been oscillating around $3,100 repeatedly. Today's performance wasn't particularly aggressive, with a slight increase of 0.14% to 0.16%, with the price fluctuating in the range of $3,093 to $3,100. It briefly touched $3,100 during the session but did not stabilize. Such volatility reflects the current market's significant divergence on Ethereum's future direction.

Over the past month, ETH has fallen from the high of $3,460 and is now stuck at this level. If asked what will happen next, the market truly has various opinions. Some are concerned based on technical analysis, believing that if the $3,200 to $3,300 zone cannot be maintained, downward pressure will be hard to resist. The high of $3,191 on January 8 has become an important short-term reference.

On the other hand, there are also many bullish voices. They point out that institutional demand is heating up, Layer 2 ecosystems are developing, and potential regulatory favorable policies could push ETH to achieve larger gains before the end of 2026. Standard Chartered Bank predicts it could reach $8,000, and some analysts even see $10,000. Although this expectation differs greatly from the current price, it is not without basis.

Of course, there are also more conservative views. They remind us of the macro liquidity shortage issue and the risk of forming a "double top" pattern on technical charts. The previous high of $4,878 has become a critical risk level—if it is truly broken, it could instead be a trap.

From a longer-term perspective, Ethereum is undergoing a structural transformation. It is gradually evolving from a role that settles all transactions to a settlement layer. This process means the way value is captured is changing. Many see 2026 as a key transitional year: Layer 2 will handle most transactions, while Layer 1 focuses on settlement and security. This vision is clear, but the actual pace of ecosystem development still needs to be observed.

If you want to track ETH's market movements, the following points are worth paying attention to. In the short term, $3,000 is a psychological threshold that cannot be ignored. Support levels around $2,800 should also be watched. Resistance is concentrated between $3,300 and $3,500.

Factors influencing the market need to be observed from several dimensions. On the macro level, risk asset sentiment and Federal Reserve policy trends are always the big background. On-chain data, such as changes in ETH holdings on exchanges, can reflect selling pressure expectations, and the flow of large holders' positions is also meaningful. Ecosystem development progress—such as the growth rate of Layer 2, staking data changes, and upgrades like Pectra—directly impact ETH's long-term logic. Regulatory factors, especially the US stance on cryptocurrency policies and the progress of spot ETF applications, remain important variables.

Finally, it must be said that volatility in the crypto market has never been gentle. No single viewpoint should be taken as the sole basis for decision-making. The most reliable approach is to combine real-time market data, a clear understanding of your risk tolerance, and independent judgment.