2026-01-11 09:21:47

The global supply chain landscape is undergoing dramatic changes. The risks in the Red Sea, frequent geopolitical conflicts, and countries' complete reversal of their previous "reduce inventory" approach—now the logic is simple: it's better to stockpile more than risk supply chain bottlenecks. This "security first" shift is triggering a frenzy of resource hoarding.

The oil market makes this clear. China's strategic and commercial reserves have exceeded 790 million barrels, the US aims to lock in 2 billion barrels, and Japan's reserves are sufficient for 232 days of use—far exceeding the usual international safety line of 90 days. This is not ordinary inventory management; it’s a direct hedge against future risks.

Even more exaggerated are military metals. At the start of 2026, the tungsten market hit new highs, with black tungsten concentrate reaching 485,000 yuan/ton, ammonium paratungstate soaring to 710,000 yuan/ton, an increase of over 217% in a year. Cobalt prices surged by 162% in tandem. What’s behind this? A global surge in military spending—US defense budget is projected to reach $1.5 trillion, the EU is investing 800 billion euros in rearmament, directly fueling demand for strategic metals like tungsten, cobalt, and titanium.

The trend in the gold market best illustrates the point. London gold broke through $4,507.74/oz, domestic gold T+D reached 1,005.52 yuan/gram, with a cumulative increase of over 67% by 2025. This is no longer driven by interest rates—the pricing logic has completely shifted toward geopolitical risk hedging and de-dollarization. Central banks worldwide are expected to increase gold holdings by 900 tons in 2026, with Goldman Sachs targeting $4,900, and CITIC and DBS even eyeing $5,100.

Essentially, geopolitics has become the "permanent pricing mechanism" for commodities. The triple resonance of supply shortages, energy transition, and de-dollarization in 2026 means gold, military metals, and oil remain the core themes. The era of physical assets has truly arrived; the key is which category you can seize.

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LiquidityNinja

· 01-14 06:26

Tungsten and cobalt's recent surge is outrageous, truly driven by the frenzy of military spending. Gold breaking 4500 is not even a high point? Central banks around the world are indeed playing a big chess game with their gold hoarding. Supply chain bottlenecks have become the new normal for stockpiling... Looks like I need to allocate some physical assets accordingly. The geopolitical risk hedging logic has completely overshadowed interest rates; this is the current game changer. Tungsten mine prices have increased by 217% in one year. This number is a bit crazy, but war expectations are priced this way. The de-dollarization trend is becoming increasingly clear; central banks are疯狂加仓黄金 (疯狂加仓黄金 - "疯狂" means "crazy" or "frenzied," but since it's part of the original, keep it as is). Oil inventories are almost becoming strategic reserves; they prefer to stockpile to death rather than let supply be cut off. I understand this logic.

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MEV_Whisperer

· 01-14 05:56

The accumulation wave is here, everyone is betting on supply chain collapse. Will gold, tungsten, cobalt... these really become the new hard currencies? --- The central bank is hoarding gold wildly. How can retail investors play this? Is this geopolitical arbitrage opportunity real or just an illusion? --- I believe in the logic of de-dollarization, but tungsten prices have risen 217%... who’s the one pulling the wool over everyone’s eyes? --- The era of physical assets has arrived, but can you hold on for a few months? Without liquidity, everything is pointless. --- The surge in military spending is pushing up tungsten and cobalt. Basically, it means the bombs are going to increase in price. --- Red sea risks, geopolitical conflicts... aren’t these just excuses for institutions to manipulate the market? Retail investors are still buying in. --- Gold has broken 4500, is the next target really 5100, or are we going to get crushed again?

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ProofOfNothing

· 01-14 03:08

Accumulation has become the new normal, this is the current game rule... Gold, tungsten, and oil are all rising, geopolitical factors are directly pricing them in --- Cobalt prices surged 162%？This wave of military-industrial metals is really being pushed up forcefully... Central banks are all疯狂加仓黄金 --- Wait, the logic of de-dollarization... Is it really coming? I believe in the $5100 gold target --- The era of physical assets... Sounds like this is the result of great power competition, whoever can grab resources wins --- Oil inventories have multiplied many times, this is not normal inventory management, it’s clearly stockpiling for the worst-case scenario --- Gold has risen 67% by 2025... My current question is how to get on board, do I still need to wait for a pullback? --- Supply shortages plus de-dollarization plus energy transition... triple overlap... No wonder gold broke 4500

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orphaned_block

· 01-11 22:19

Is accumulation really insurance or a bomb? Honestly, I have no idea.

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SneakyFlashloan

· 01-11 09:51

Hoarding, hoarding, hoarding. The whole world is playing the inventory game. I see gold prices are almost soaring to the sky, and tungsten prices are even more outrageous. This is not supply chain management at all; it's clearly a gamble on geopolitical chips.

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OnchainDetective

· 01-11 09:48

Tungsten prices up 217%, Cobalt prices up 162%... The capital flow behind these increases is quite interesting. According to on-chain data, there was indeed an abnormal pattern of large position transfers during the surge in military metals. By tracking multiple addresses, one can identify wallets that had pre-positioned—typical of a pre-locking strategic metal holdings. The obvious capital connection is here: central banks of various countries buying 900 tons of gold, the US military spending 1.5 trillion, the EU reallocating 800 billion for rearmament... This is not ordinary inventory; it’s organized hedging. The target addresses are already locked in, and the capital flow indicates a quiet accumulation of physical assets. I’ve long suspected that de-dollarization would advance so quickly; just look at the gold price increase to see why.

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RegenRestorer

· 01-11 09:45

Tungsten up 217%, cobalt up 162%... This pace, military industry metals are completely hijacked by the geopolitical situation.

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Ramen_Until_Rich

· 01-11 09:42

Tungsten up 217%? Damn, this is basically betting on a big fight. Stockpiling metals is just stockpiling chips, understand?

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GasFeeCryer

· 01-11 09:38

Wheat prices surged 217%? Damn, I lost all the mining stocks I stocked last year, and now they're taking off... Just hoarding gold isn't enough, now even military metals need to be protected. Geopolitical politics has truly become the king of pricing. Central banks are疯狂ly stockpiling gold, while retail investors are still guessing whether gold can reach 5100... the gap is really huge. The de-dollarization wave is here, it seems like accumulating hard assets has really become a habit. Cobalt skyrocketed 162%, and the logic behind it is much crazier than I thought. It feels like the risks are just beginning to be released. Black swan events are happening more and more frequently, and the supply chain defense line is breaking down. Everyone is stockpiling, stockpiling, stockpiling. The surge in military spending is driving strategic metals to take off. The logic is so clear, what’s the next trend? Reserving for war is the real "war without smoke," the more you stockpile, the greater your say. Gold breaking 4500? Is that all? I feel there's still a lot of room to grow. De-dollarization is no longer just a conspiracy theory; central banks are starting to get serious.

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BlockchainArchaeologist

· 01-11 09:33

Tung price up 217%? Is that true? We need to check some on-chain data to confirm. But speaking of which, the logic that geopolitical conflicts push up strategic metals isn't wrong— as long as the risk of war remains, metals will have to rise. Gold at $5100? I’m skeptical, but $4900 still has a chance. Anyway, now central banks are frantically stockpiling gold, so we small investors should also hold some physical assets. Can oil, tungsten, cobalt... these things be tokenized on-chain, or are they only tradable through traditional futures? Supply chain security, to put it simply, is everyone being afraid of being cut off— the US dollar too. Now everyone wants to hold gold. The de-dollarization logic is becoming increasingly clear. The key question is, how long can this rally last? What if the situation eases?

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