2026-01-11 09:24:00

Interesting phenomenon: the big players are loudly proclaiming in the media, but the activity level in the market is dropping sharply. This contrast is a bit absurd.

Let's first see who has been speaking out recently: CZ stated on X that a "super cycle" might be about to begin; Cathie Wood predicts that the US government will consider increasing its Bitcoin holdings as national reserves; Tom Lee's firm has invested $2.5 billion in Ethereum, with a year-end target of $10,000 to $15,000; Michael Saylor remains committed to his "full reversal" Bitcoin strategy, continuously adding to his position.

All of this sounds very optimistic, right? But here’s the problem—the spot trading volume in the market has fallen back to a new low since November 2023. A typical "price up, volume down" phenomenon, what does it indicate? It suggests that the fundamental driver isn't new capital entering the market, but rather existing funds flipping back and forth. The foundation is indeed a bit shaky.

The root of the contradiction is not hard to understand: the big liquidation in October last year scared away many market makers and leveraged funds, and the market now severely lacks depth. From another perspective, the current market is like a shallow beach; a single wave can stir up a big storm.

How to respond? Here are some suggestions:

1. **Be cautious of short-term volatility** — due to insufficient market depth, large trades can easily trigger extreme fluctuations.
2. **Stick to spot trading** — absolutely avoid high-leverage contracts; don’t become cannon fodder when liquidity dries up.
3. **Patience is key** — a true super cycle must be accompanied by sustainable trading volume growth and genuine capital inflows. Before these signals are confirmed, observe more and act less.

Long-term judgments from the big players can be referenced, but short-term operations must stay in tune with the market’s real pulse. Which side do you tend to believe?

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quietly_staking

· 01-13 02:35

This is the classic "say one thing and do another." We really need to be cautious about the shrinking volume. Everyone is hyping the super cycle, but where is the real capital? Price rising with decreasing volume is what I dislike the most. Shallow market conditions are the easiest to get liquidated. Did the big players really invest that much money, or is it just talk? Now, the strategy should be to stay steady; avoid trading contracts altogether. Why still believe in the big players' calls? Watching the trading volume is the real indicator. The lack of depth in this wave was obvious early on. No wonder it's so easy to pump the market.

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ProposalManiac

· 01-12 20:27

The pattern of rising prices with shrinking volume is something I've seen many times before, and it has been replayed many times in history. The key issue is that the mechanism design can't keep up. --- Instead of listening to the big players' hype, it's better to look at this hard indicator of trading depth—that's the real truth. --- In simple terms, it's the governance dilemma of poor liquidity. You need new funds to break the deadlock. --- Spot > Futures, this is not a suggestion, but a necessary condition to counter market shallow waters. --- The market is like a shallow beach lacking depth, and this description is quite fitting. --- It's an imbalance of game theory, everyone. Big players are trading among themselves, while retail investors are just watching the show. --- From my perspective, this is the aftereffect of last year's liquidation. Improvement takes time and real money. --- Be cautious and patient. Anyway, I will wait until trading volume rebounds before taking action.

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blocksnark

· 01-11 09:53

Price rises, volume shrinks—I'm already tired of this routine, it's so predictable. Existing funds are being shuffled around, it sounds just like hot potato. Big shots call for caution, but I still rely on trading volume to judge. Shallow market conditions are indeed stimulating, but I really don't dare to leverage this time. It feels like everyone is waiting for real money to come in, but it's still early. This wave is either the final celebration or the real beginning, but definitely not now.

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BlockchainDecoder

· 01-11 09:53

Research shows that there is indeed a classic microstructure issue in the market. From a technical perspective, the new low in spot trading volume in November 2023 signals the exit of liquidity providers rather than genuine demand growth—this phenomenon was discussed as early as in Mancini-Griffoli et al.'s 2014 paper. The logic behind rising prices and shrinking volume is actually quite straightforward: it's just stock competition. I agree with the long-term judgment framework of the big players, but this cannot hide the fact that the short-term fundamentals are weak. It is worth noting that the big liquidation in October last year scared away market makers, and the lack of market depth is obvious. I advise everyone not to be fooled by media hype. Overall, until there is a substantial rebound in trading volume, caution is still necessary. Spot can be allocated, but avoid derivatives—when liquidity dries up, you'll really become cannon fodder.

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AirdropHunter9000

· 01-11 09:50

All talk, you can tell the real from the fake just by looking at the trading volume --- Price rises but volume shrinks—this routine has been seen many times. Big players are just bragging --- Recycling of existing funds sounds like a game of musical chairs—eventually it will blow up --- Shallow market conditions are indeed dangerous; one big order can crash the market --- I only trust trading volume; everything else is just stories --- CZ and others are shouting happily, but I’m watching the order book... feeling a bit anxious --- This wave feels like a repeat of October last year. Should we be cautious? --- Contract traders might have to cut losses again this time --- Gradually accumulating spot, staying away from leverage—it's that simple --- Is genuine capital entering the market? Feels like it’s not --- Long-term bets by big players, short-term plays by retail traders—who knows how it will end? --- With such poor liquidity, are those risking heavy bets truly brave or just foolish? --- Watching, observing, and then observing some more. Anyway, it’s not like these few days make a big difference

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MetadataExplorer

· 01-11 09:46

The signal of price increase with shrinking volume really can't hold anymore, it feels like everyone is just hyping themselves up --- Big players are shouting loudly, but trading volume actually drops below new lows... this logic doesn't add up --- Existing funds are just shifting around, no new money is coming in at all, the foundation is truly weak --- In shallow market conditions, a small fluctuation can be deadly, playing with leverage on contracts at this time really shows a lack of brains --- Things CZ, Wood姐, and others say are just for listening, don't really go all in, the market depth is so poor --- What does a new low in trading volume mean? It means this price increase is fundamentally unreliable, a typical fake boost --- The current market is like a game of musical chairs, once it reaches you, it’s going to blow up --- I just want to know who the hell is throwing 2.5 billion at Ethereum while the market trading volume still hits new lows, that’s got to be pretty embarrassing --- Watch and wait, don’t rush to act, wait until trading volume really picks up --- Big players' bets don't mean the fundamentals are healthy, the lack of market depth is the biggest hidden danger

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StableBoi

· 01-11 09:40

Price increases with shrinking volume is ridiculous, it feels like it's all big players hyping themselves up --- This wave is just storytellers talking, but real money hasn't come in --- Talking nicely doesn't compare to trading volume; now no one is following --- I want to believe in the super cycle, but the shallow market cap is truly frightening --- Big shots shout until they're hoarse, but the market just won't cooperate, it's very strange --- How long can the stockpile trading last? It will collapse sooner or later --- Shallow market conditions are the most dangerous; a single large order can cause a black swan --- Rather than listening to calls, it's better to look at the data; current data indeed doesn't support optimism --- I just want to ask how many people were really scared off during the October wave --- Spot trading is the right path; contract traders, get ready to be harvested

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BTCBeliefStation

· 01-11 09:24

Basically, it's just a pump and dump. No matter how loudly the big players shout, the trading volume is still falling. I've seen many cases of price rising with shrinking volume; it's all just existing funds hyping themselves up. Reliable? In shallow waters, even a big fish can cause a stir. Entering now is just looking for death. The big players adding positions is their business; we should just honestly stick to spot trading. This wave of market movement is indeed fundamentally weak. Let's wait and see. If a super cycle really arrives, trading volume will definitely pick up. Who would dare to go all-in like this? Contracts are not to be touched now; a single extreme fluctuation can lead to liquidation. It all sounds like self-soothing rhetoric, honestly.

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