Why has MetaMask's prediction market also cooled down? Monthly trading volume is only $700,000

The big wallet can’t stop the curse of cold start. According to the latest news, the MetaMask prediction market has been online for nearly a month, with an average of only 300 to 400 active users per day, and a nominal trading volume of just $700,000. Compared to MetaMask’s millions of monthly active users, this number is quite sobering.

Reality Data of Cold Start

Based on data released by Dash, founder of Paymentscan, on the X platform, the performance of MetaMask’s prediction market is indeed underwhelming:

• Average daily active users: 300 to 400
• Nominal trading volume: $700,000
• Launch time: nearly one month

What does this mean? Assuming 30 days per month, fewer than 400 active users per day. For a product with millions of wallet users, the conversion rate is below 1%. And with $700,000 in trading volume distributed among active users, the average per-user transaction is less than $2,000, which is quite sluggish in the DeFi space.

Wallet Users ≠ Prediction Market Users

As one of the most popular wallets in the crypto space, MetaMask has a huge user base. But from this cold start data, it’s clear that owning a wallet doesn’t mean users will engage with prediction markets. Multiple reports mention MetaMask’s application scenarios in the DeFi ecosystem—participating in lending, liquidity mining, staking, and financial management—wallet tools are indeed entry points. However, prediction markets require different skills: judgment of events, understanding of probabilities, and risk awareness. These are not simply solved by connecting a wallet.

In other words, MetaMask’s advantage lies in providing convenient asset management and interaction channels, but the success of prediction markets depends on the product’s attractiveness and user education. The flow advantage of the wallet has not been fully converted here.

The Real Dilemma of the Prediction Market Sector

This is not an issue unique to MetaMask. As a niche sector, prediction markets face several challenges:

• High user education costs: Users need to understand probabilities and event outcome judgments, which are unfamiliar to ordinary users.
• Liquidity problems: Low trading volume means insufficient counterparties, leading to slippage and difficulty in executing trades.
• Variable event quality: The value of prediction markets depends on whether listed events attract enough attention and controversy.
• Fragmented competition: Multiple projects are already operating in this space, and users must choose among many options.

Personal View: This Might Just Be the Beginning

From a cold start perspective, $700,000 in monthly trading volume and 400 daily users are indeed not optimistic. However, it’s important to note that this data is from just under a month since launch. Prediction markets may need more time to accumulate users and liquidity. The key question is whether MetaMask will continue to invest resources in user education, product optimization, and attracting high-quality prediction events.

If MetaMask treats prediction markets as a long-term strategy, it might gradually increase activity through incentives, community operations, and other methods. But if it’s just an additional feature of the wallet, this cold start could last even longer.

Summary

The cold start of MetaMask’s prediction market reflects two realities: first, having a large user base doesn’t automatically translate into new feature adoption; second, the prediction market sector itself faces dual challenges of user education and liquidity. While $700,000 in monthly trading volume seems cold, for a product only a month old, it’s not entirely dismissive of future potential. The key depends on whether MetaMask will increase investment and operational efforts moving forward.