#美国非农就业数据未达市场预期 2026 The beginning of the year sees turmoil in the Middle East pushing up safe-haven demand, with gold surging strongly!

Recently, gold prices have fluctuated around the $4,500 mark, rising nearly 4%. Several research institutions have raised their target prices, with some aggressive views even pointing to $5,400. Three main supporting factors are resonating behind this rebound:

**Geopolitical Risks Continue to Ferment**
The escalation of the Middle East situation is the most direct current driving force. Frequent interactions between the US and Iran, increased Red Sea shipping pressure, and high regional conflict risks all contribute. Such uncertainties tend to boost the appeal of safe-haven assets, making the $4,400 support level for gold particularly solid. Every market pullback tends to attract buying.

**Federal Reserve Policy Environment Shifts**
By 2026, the market consensus expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, with cumulative cuts expected to exceed 100 basis points. The rate-cut cycle generally lowers the opportunity cost of holding gold, which benefits precious metals without coupon income. Against this backdrop, many institutions are reassessing the allocation value of precious metals.

**Global Central Banks Continue to Increase Holdings**
The People's Bank of China has been adding to its gold reserves for over 13 months, and global central banks' cumulative purchases over four years are also boosting long-term demand expectations. Central banks' ongoing buying reflects recognition of gold's value as a reserve asset, and this trend of accumulation provides a bottom support for gold prices.

On the technical side, after breaking through $4,530, market expectations for reaching the $4,600–$4,800 range have increased. Although there are differing opinions among institutions about the top, bullish sentiment has become mainstream. During turbulent times, the safe-haven value of gold is often re-priced, and this current rebound may still have room to grow.