#密码资产动态追踪 A seasoned crypto analyst recently shared his conflicting views on BTC: the next 1-2 months might see a good rally, but 2026 remains uncertain.

Based on the fund flow data he tracks, Bitcoin has been steadily rebounding since hitting bottom on December 24 last year. However, short-term technical indicators show overbought signals, so this rally hasn't fully played out yet—generally, a move from the bottom takes 2-3 weeks to reveal its true nature.

The dollar liquidity in the futures market is gradually warming up, which is an interesting signal because the previous mid-2021 peak also followed the same rhythm. This makes the $98,000 to $100,000 level a critical threshold. Breaking through this level would mean closely watching the resistance near all-time highs.

But looking at the macro perspective, it gets a bit awkward. Since January this year, liquidity has been clearly weakening relative to price momentum, and the market has actually reached the hot zone at the end of this cycle. Insufficient momentum and lack of liquidity are his main reasons for being bearish on next year.

However, he also left a caveat: a bear market has not been officially confirmed. The confirmation would be continuous outflows of BTC funds. Conversely, if a large amount of long-term spot funds flood in over the next few months and break the downtrend, his outlook would also shift.