2026-01-11 10:10:33

#美国贸易赤字状况 The US trade deficit widening, how does that relate to our crypto circle?

I've seen many say that macro policies can influence the crypto market, but honestly, how long is the logical chain? Trade friction → US dollar policy → liquidity → digital asset prices, each link needs to align.

During the market volatility at the beginning of the year, some indeed blamed geopolitical or trade factors. But the fundamentals, technicals, and capital flows within the crypto space are the most direct drivers. Over-interpreting macro factors can easily lead to being manipulated by the market narrative.

Of course, if the US really ramps up tariffs on China, it could impact global liquidity expectations and cause fluctuations in risk assets. But we should wait for the data to actually materialize before drawing conclusions; it's too early to say now.

What do you all think?

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IfIWereOnChain

· 01-14 06:27

This logical chain is too long and prone to breaking. It's better to just focus on ETH's trend and be straightforward. Don't be brainwashed by macro narratives; the coin price ultimately depends on capital flow. Let's wait until tariffs are implemented before discussing this. It's a bit pointless to talk about it now.

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ForkPrince

· 01-12 23:44

Haha, I find this logical chain a bit confusing; it feels like everyone's just imagining things in their own minds. To be honest, the crypto world is the crypto world, macro is macro. Mixing them up can easily lead to being cut off. Wait, if the trade war really escalates, we'll talk about it then. It's still early to discuss now.

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UnluckyMiner

· 01-12 05:45

Basically, it's blaming macroeconomics, but in reality, fundamentals are the key.

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ImpermanentLossFan

· 01-11 10:40

That's right, a bunch of people love to pass the buck to macro, but why not check what's in their own wallets, haha. This logic is indeed convoluted, but I think the key still depends on the funding situation. The macro narrative is just talk without substance. Anyway, I don't believe that a trade deficit can directly cause a market crash. During crypto hype, nobody pays attention to these things. Let's wait until tariffs actually take effect; right now, it's all just speculation, which is meaningless.

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DAOdreamer

· 01-11 10:39

This logical chain is indeed a bit long, but the liquidity part still needs to be closely monitored. It could collapse at any moment.

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OnchainArchaeologist

· 01-11 10:38

That's right, don't always blame macroeconomics. The crypto world isn't that complicated after all. Overly relying on correlations can make you more vulnerable to being liquidated. It's better to focus on on-chain data and fund flows.

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SerLiquidated

· 01-11 10:34

Trade deficit? Wake up, crypto prices mainly depend on Federal Reserve movements and whale wallets; don't over-attribute.

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TokenRationEater

· 01-11 10:22

How come even the trade deficit is being blamed on the coin price, really impressive... Wait, why can't I figure out this logic? To be honest, no matter how fierce the trade war is, the crypto circle has to pull itself together Don't always think about macro interventions to rescue the market, that's lazy thinking Starting to make up stories before the data is even solidified, truly remarkable

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ForkMaster

· 01-11 10:15

Oh dear, someone is using macroeconomics as a shield again. Honestly, it's just that they haven't done their homework well. Trade deficit? Liquidity? I've been tired of these excuses for three years. Back then, I made quite a bit of profit from fork arbitrage. Now, these arguments are just late-coming excuses. Crypto price fluctuations depend on the market sentiment; everything else is noise. Don't let project teams set the pace.

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ZkSnarker

· 01-11 10:14

ngl the macro-to-crypto pipeline people describe is basically just post-hoc rationalization dressed up as analysis... yeah trade deficits matter but tbh most of y'all are just finding excuses for your bags getting rekt lol

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