Livestock Futures Climb as Cattle Market Bounces Back

Cattle futures demonstrated resilience on Thursday, with live cattle contracts notching gains of 75 cents to $1.25 to pop back higher. The broader market reflected cautious optimism across multiple segments, though cash activity remained subdued. Cash trading recorded minimal movement early in the week, with dressed beef trading near $365 in Northern regions and live cattle valued between $228-$232. The Fed Cattle Exchange online auction on Thursday morning produced no transactions, with bids hovering around the $230 mark.

Feeder Cattle and Index Performance Rally

Feeder cattle futures emerged as a stronger performer, climbing between $1.95 to $2.90 during Thursday’s session. The CME Feeder Cattle Index strengthened its position, rising $4.92 to close at $368.07 as of January 7. This upward trajectory continued the recent momentum across the sector, suggesting investor confidence in the intermediate-term outlook.

Export Dynamics and International Demand

Export sales data painted an intriguing picture, with 10,600 MT of 2026 beef sold during the week ending January 1. South Korea emerged as the primary buyer, accounting for 4,400 MT, while Mexico purchased 1,600 MT. Recent shipment volumes showed 12,695 MT dispatched in late December 2025 and 146 MT during the January 1 window.

Monthly census figures revealed a concerning trend for the long term: October beef exports totaled 201 million lbs on a carcass basis, marking the weakest October performance since 2015. Conversely, import activity surged to 136,972 MT, reflecting a 6.68% increase from September levels.

Domestic Pricing and Processing Indicators

USDA wholesale boxed beef pricing moved higher on Thursday afternoon, with the Choice/Select spread sitting at $4.73. Choice grades advanced $2.51 to $356.79 per cwt, while Select climbed $2.78 to $352.06, indicating continued strength in premium cuts.

Federally inspected cattle slaughter on Thursday reached an estimated 117,000 head. The week-to-date total accumulated to 465,000 head—notably 10,732 head below the comparable week from the prior year, suggesting tighter supplies in the near term.

Disease Surveillance and Market Implications

The Thursday APHIS update flagged expanded New World Screwworm activity across multiple Mexican states, including Tamaulipas and San Luis Potosi. This development warrants monitoring, as any supply disruptions could support price resilience heading into Q1.

Futures Settlement Summary

Live Cattle Contracts:

• Feb 26: $235.275, +$0.750
• Apr 26: $236.225, +$1.050
• Jun 26: $231.275, +$1.250

Feeder Cattle Contracts:

• Jan 26: $362.475, +$2.875
• Mar 26: $357.725, +$2.225
• Apr 26: $356.625, +$1.950

The combination of steady domestic demand and export activity appears to be supporting the current bounce back in cattle futures, though participants remain focused on disease dynamics and supply developments.