Just ten days into the new year, the U.S. policy landscape has already sent a series of major signals. To boost momentum, the recently introduced eight economic policies almost all target core market pain points—precisely the factors that have long suppressed the performance of crypto assets. Let’s analyze each one to see what this wave of actions means for the crypto space.
**Shift in Interest Rate Policy—The Strongest Bullish Signal for Risk Assets**
The most direct change is the attitude toward interest rates. The policy explicitly urges the Federal Reserve to keep rates at a low 1%, set a cap of 10% on credit card interest rates, and plans to repurchase $200 billion worth of mortgage-backed securities to lower mortgage rates.
Many might think this falls under traditional finance and has little to do with the crypto market. Not so. Historical data has long proven that U.S. Treasury yields are significantly negatively correlated with the prices of mainstream crypto assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum. When interest rates are high, investors tend to favor low-risk, stable-return bonds, causing risk assets to cool off. Once rates sharply decline to around 1%, bond attractiveness drops dramatically, and a large amount of liquidity needs to find new outlets. The highly elastic crypto market naturally becomes a primary destination for this capital. This is the simplest liquidity logic—when safe assets’ yields fail to attract, people will naturally allocate to higher-risk, higher-return sectors.
**Indirect Impact of Inflation Management**
Beyond interest rate policies, changes in inflation expectations are also worth noting. Steady inflation management expectations can improve overall risk appetite and support narratives around "inflation-hedging assets" like Bitcoin. Historically, the initial phase of policy easing often marks a key window for crypto asset rallies.
**Practical Considerations of Market Liquidity**
Policy friendliness does not immediately translate into market reactions. But from an allocation perspective, when policy signals are clear enough, professional institutions and large funds tend to act ahead of retail investors. Currently, the situation is that policy expectations are reshaping the risk asset allocation landscape. For ordinary investors, the key at this stage is to understand the interaction between policy cycles and market cycles, rather than blindly chasing gains.
**Pragmatic Advice**
Could there be variables that alter this wave of policies? Certainly. International politics, economic data, and public opinion reactions could all influence the final implementation. But based on current signals, the market is re-pricing expectations of a loose environment. For long-term holders of crypto assets, a policy-friendly environment itself is worth noting. For short-term traders, close attention should be paid to the specific progress of policy implementation and the actual market response rhythm. In any case, what market participants need at this stage is clear thinking and prudent strategies, not blind optimism.
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ruggedSoBadLMAO
· 20h ago
Lowering interest rates forces institutional funds to rush into risk assets—this logic is solid... but then they say don't blindly chase the rally?
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AirdropHarvester
· 01-15 05:04
As interest rates drop, our coin should be soaring upwards, right?
View OriginalReply0
PretendingToReadDocs
· 01-12 19:53
Wait, interest rates drop to 1%? Then wouldn't it be better to just buy Bitcoin at the bottom? The previous bear market was crushed by high interest rates.
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TokenStorm
· 01-12 19:49
U.S. Treasury yields drop to 1%? On-chain data has been telling this story all along. Large whale addresses have been highly active these past few days, and I can smell the scent of a big gamble.
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ApeWithNoFear
· 01-12 19:42
Interest rates drop to 1%? Then big institutions are definitely quietly positioning themselves, and retail investors need to catch up quickly.
Just ten days into the new year, the U.S. policy landscape has already sent a series of major signals. To boost momentum, the recently introduced eight economic policies almost all target core market pain points—precisely the factors that have long suppressed the performance of crypto assets. Let’s analyze each one to see what this wave of actions means for the crypto space.
**Shift in Interest Rate Policy—The Strongest Bullish Signal for Risk Assets**
The most direct change is the attitude toward interest rates. The policy explicitly urges the Federal Reserve to keep rates at a low 1%, set a cap of 10% on credit card interest rates, and plans to repurchase $200 billion worth of mortgage-backed securities to lower mortgage rates.
Many might think this falls under traditional finance and has little to do with the crypto market. Not so. Historical data has long proven that U.S. Treasury yields are significantly negatively correlated with the prices of mainstream crypto assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum. When interest rates are high, investors tend to favor low-risk, stable-return bonds, causing risk assets to cool off. Once rates sharply decline to around 1%, bond attractiveness drops dramatically, and a large amount of liquidity needs to find new outlets. The highly elastic crypto market naturally becomes a primary destination for this capital. This is the simplest liquidity logic—when safe assets’ yields fail to attract, people will naturally allocate to higher-risk, higher-return sectors.
**Indirect Impact of Inflation Management**
Beyond interest rate policies, changes in inflation expectations are also worth noting. Steady inflation management expectations can improve overall risk appetite and support narratives around "inflation-hedging assets" like Bitcoin. Historically, the initial phase of policy easing often marks a key window for crypto asset rallies.
**Practical Considerations of Market Liquidity**
Policy friendliness does not immediately translate into market reactions. But from an allocation perspective, when policy signals are clear enough, professional institutions and large funds tend to act ahead of retail investors. Currently, the situation is that policy expectations are reshaping the risk asset allocation landscape. For ordinary investors, the key at this stage is to understand the interaction between policy cycles and market cycles, rather than blindly chasing gains.
**Pragmatic Advice**
Could there be variables that alter this wave of policies? Certainly. International politics, economic data, and public opinion reactions could all influence the final implementation. But based on current signals, the market is re-pricing expectations of a loose environment. For long-term holders of crypto assets, a policy-friendly environment itself is worth noting. For short-term traders, close attention should be paid to the specific progress of policy implementation and the actual market response rhythm. In any case, what market participants need at this stage is clear thinking and prudent strategies, not blind optimism.