The FOMC Meeting Countdown: How October's Rate Decision Could Reshape Crypto Markets

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is set to convene on October 28–29, 2025, and the market is bracing for a potential game-changer. With prediction markets pricing in a 92% probability of a 0.25% rate cut, institutional traders and crypto enthusiasts alike are positioning ahead of what could be a significant liquidity inflection point.

Understanding the Stakes: Rate Cuts and Capital Flow

The current federal funds target range sits at 4.25%–4.50%, with the last adjustment occurring in December 2024. Should the Fed move forward with a quarter-point reduction, the implications ripple across multiple asset classes simultaneously. Historical precedent suggests that rate-easing cycles tend to redirect capital away from risk-free assets, fueling demand for higher-yielding opportunities including equities, commodities like gold, and increasingly, digital assets.

A weaker dollar environment—the natural consequence of policy easing—typically creates tailwinds for crypto markets, as investors seek alternatives to fiat-based returns. Bitcoin, BNB, and major altcoins have historically responded positively to these macro pivots, with early movers often capturing the most significant gains.

Market Consensus and Trading Implications

Polymarket data reflects remarkably strong consensus around a 25 basis point cut, suggesting the Fed pivot narrative is already well-established in the minds of sophisticated traders. This alignment between prediction markets and Fed probability assessments is noteworthy—it indicates minimal surprise risk from the October 28–29 decision.

For crypto traders, the implication is straightforward: if the cut materializes as expected, Bitcoin, ETH, and XRP could encounter renewed momentum as capital rotates into risk assets ahead of what may shape up as a new macro liquidity cycle.

What Traders Should Watch

Jerome Powell’s tone and forward guidance at the FOMC press conference will matter as much as the rate decision itself. Commentary on future cuts, economic conditions, and policy trajectory could either amplify or moderate the initial market reaction. The 22-day waiting period offers an ideal window for traders to analyze on-chain data, fund flow patterns, and positioning ahead of the announcement.

The convergence of technical levels, macro catalysts, and positioning suggests October 28–29 could mark an inflection point for digital asset markets.