FIL Dilemma: Can $3 become the final decent ending?

Still following the trend of “bottom fishing for quick riches” or rushing to “permanently exit”? The discussion explosion about FIL in the past 48 hours has everyone in the crypto circle debating the life and death of this old project. As an observer who has been deeply involved in the blockchain field for 8 years, I want to use data and logic to clarify this matter. Whether you listen or not is up to you, but at least it can help you avoid some detours.

Reality Check: The “False Prosperity” in the Distributed Storage Sector

First, let’s clarify the basic premise. FIL is backed by the incentive layer of the IPFS protocol. This sector was once promoted as a representative of the “Web3 infrastructure revolution,” with top institutions like Sequoia Capital having endorsed it. But ideals are one thing, reality is another.

Currently, as of (January 12, 2026), FIL’s price has fallen to $1.46, a 24-hour decline of -2.40%. More harshly, the distributed storage sector is no longer dominated solely by FIL. New projects like Arweave have diverted real demand with their “pay once, store forever” model, and the so-called “storage value” of FIL has yet to produce any genuine commercial application scenarios.

In my view, most of the so-called “storage demand” is actually a game orchestrated by miners themselves, with very little effective market demand. Without real-world applications to support it, the token’s value can only be an illusion—an eternal truth in the crypto market.

Institutional Era: Sentiment Tokens Are Yesterday’s News

Looking back at the flow of crypto funds in 2026, savvy institutional investors have long been picking and choosing. Sectors with real landing scenarios, such as stablecoin financial infrastructure and the integration of AI and blockchain, have attracted continuous funding. Projects like FIL, with stagnant ecosystems and relying solely on market hype, are simply not attractive to institutional capital.

This shift is significant. The era where “telling stories” could pump prices is over. Now, what matters are real business data, mature application ecosystems, and compliant operational frameworks. FIL is extremely weak in all three dimensions, which determines it can no longer attract new institutional inflows.

Technical Perspective: Support Levels Are Already Flickering

From a chart perspective, FIL’s current technical support is fragile to the point of concern. The recent pullback from high levels seems minor, but behind it are signals of ongoing capital outflows. Once key support levels are effectively broken, a bottoming at around $0.6 is not just alarmist talk but a probable event.

The technical analysis also reveals another issue: market participants’ patience is rapidly depleting. From micro-level trading volume and price fluctuations, confidence in FIL is gradually eroding. This micro decline will eventually lead to a macro trend reversal.

Ecosystem Stagnation: Technological Iteration Is Several Streets Ahead

Some may ask: “FIL was so popular back then, isn’t there a chance for a reversal?” The answer is yes, but it’s difficult.

In recent years, the main focus of the FIL team has been on adjusting the mining mechanism, with few breakthroughs at the ecosystem level. Meanwhile, the technological development speed of the distributed storage sector has far surpassed FIL’s iteration pace. New storage solutions, consensus mechanisms, and business models are emerging rapidly in this sector, while FIL increasingly resembles a veteran forgotten by the times.

If in 3 to 5 years, new storage technologies mature and gain widespread adoption, the likelihood of FIL being abandoned by the market is quite high.

Rational Choice for Investors

If you hold FIL, my advice is straightforward: don’t expect any “plot twist.” Once this rebound reaches around $3, you should decisively exit. Remove this project from your watchlist and look for opportunities with real market fundamentals, active ecosystems.

The crypto market has never lacked stories or opportunities. There’s no need to gamble your funds on a project whose decline is clearly evident in history.

Of course, this is just my personal analysis based on current data. Markets are always unpredictable, but probabilities tend to favor rationality.