2026-01-12 19:32:08

Bond markets keep testing the NFP resistance level—we're stuck in a tough spot here. The real question is how the market will balance goldilocks momentum against reflation signals once rate cut pricing kicks into higher gear.

Right now it's a tug-of-war. If we get soft landing vibes (controlled growth without overheating), yields compress further. But if reflation fears resurface, bonds get hammered and the whole narrative flips. The Fed's next moves depend entirely on which scenario wins—and that's where the volatility comes from.

Watch how institutions position before the next economic print. NFP data, inflation reads, and Fed commentary will be make-or-break signals for what comes next.

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MissedAirdropAgain

· 01-13 11:43

ngl This wave of the bond market is really dancing on a tightrope, whether it's a soft landing or stagflation, no one can say for sure who will win. Damn, I have to keep an eye on the NFP data again. If this continues, my heart won't be able to take it sooner or later. The Fed folks might change their tone at any time, and then everyone will lose. The market is now just a casino, see who bets correctly on the Fed's intentions. Wait and see how institutions are positioning themselves, now that's the real signal.

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NFTRegretter

· 01-12 20:02

Damn, it's another tug-of-war, so annoying --- Soft landing or stagflation, basically it depends on whether the Federal Reserve wants to loosen monetary policy --- Before the NFP data is released, institutions must be scrambling to position themselves. We're just retail investors waiting to be cut. --- Is it anti-inflation or inflation? Feels like there's no certainty... The bond market is really torturous --- Now everyone is afraid to go long, afraid to go short, this is the feeling of being locked in --- Let's wait and see the data next week, it might directly change the situation --- At this stage, no one can predict, liquidity is being squeezed painfully --- As long as the Fed hasn't made a decision, we're living in Schrödinger's bull and bear, haha --- Bond yields are so tangled, no wonder big players are waiting for economic prints --- So right now, it's all about betting on what the Fed is thinking; everything else is just floating clouds

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AirdropworkerZhang

· 01-12 20:02

Before the NFL data is released, institutions are definitely rushing to buy the dip. This wave will either result in a soft landing or reignition of inflation, with a fifty-fifty probability.

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CryptoPhoenix

· 01-12 19:35

It's another deadlock situation; whether it's a soft landing or stagflation, we're tired of playing this game of choosing one. The key is how institutions are positioning themselves—when they move, we just follow and gather dust [laughs]. --- The repeated testing of bonds is essentially waiting for a clear signal. My intuition is: the next NFP data will tear through this layer of paper, and then we'll know who is swimming naked. --- Crossing cycles is like this: today's anxiety is actually tomorrow's opportunity. Wait for the Fed's guidance; this shrinkage is normal preparation. Don't be scared by the volatility. --- I'm a bit tired; the tug-of-war on bonds really tests patience. But we've all heard the story of phoenix rebirth, right? The bottom zone is right in front of us. --- Is it anti-inflation or stagflation? Ultimately, it's a matter of probability. Institutions have probably already loaded up on chips; all we need to do is patiently wait for that turning point. --- I remember that wave in 2022; these small fluctuations now are nothing. Once the mindset is rebuilt, opportunities will naturally come. --- NFP and inflation data are the real powder keg; a soft landing is the biggest question mark. We'll see the answer then.

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LuckyBlindCat