2026-01-12 19:51:12

Is Polymarket's incentive mechanism over-issuing? On-chain data suggests that the situation warrants deep reflection.

Statistics show that only 12% of markets on the platform have a trading volume exceeding $10,000, and only 2% have surpassed the $50,000 mark. In terms of participation, only 11% of users have completed more than 100 trades.

These figures are laid out here, yet Polymarket's valuation fluctuates between $10 billion and $20 billion. Comparing the two, it really makes one scratch their head—can a market ecosystem with such thin liquidity sustain its valuation? Or is the prosperity built on early user incentives essentially a bubble? It warrants a re-evaluation by the market.

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Hash_Bandit

· 01-15 18:06

nah, those liquidity numbers are giving me pre-2017 altcoin vibes... 12% markets doing real volume? that's basically difficulty adjustment before the actual hashrate kicks in. seen this movie before and it doesn't always have a happy ending tbh

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ImpermanentPhobia

· 01-14 22:05

It's just hot air built up; once the incentives stop, the true nature will be revealed.

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ZenMiner

· 01-12 20:21

False fire, we all know it well; without incentives, the enthusiasm disappears as well. --- Once this data was released, it broke the defense; breaking 2% and surpassing 50,000 is truly remarkable. --- To put it simply, the whales are playing themselves; a valuation of over 100 billion won't last long. --- When the incentives dry up and the truth is revealed, right now is just a gamble on retail investors taking the bait. --- I just want to see how many people can remain without subsidies; then we'll know the real water content. --- With such thin liquidity, daring to value so aggressively is truly showy. --- Early adopters who came in to harvest the wool should have left by now; most who are still here are just bagholders. --- Is a 12% market trading volume normal? It looks a bit suspicious to me. --- It feels like the prediction market itself is a false demand, coupled with virtual hype and double watering.

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DegenWhisperer

· 01-12 20:12

The term "虚火" is used perfectly. Can a 12% market share really be inflated to 20 billion? That's hilarious. Some valuations are just illusions built on incentives.

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GweiTooHigh

· 01-12 20:02

The term "虚火" is used perfectly. I looked at the data and couldn't help but laugh—100-200 billion valuation supporting this level of liquidity? Divine operation.

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