Kalshi Prediction Crash Scene: 98% Probability Disrupted in Seconds

Recently, a textbook-level reversal occurred on the prediction platform Kalshi. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt was holding a press conference on January 7th, where the market initially assigned a 98% probability that the speech would reach or exceed 65 minutes. However, things took a dramatic turn.

**Reversal, Short Sellers Profit Big**

Just as the press conference was approaching that time point, Karoline Leavitt suddenly ended the event early, missing the 65-minute mark by just a few seconds. This "divine intervention" directly allowed short traders to earn 50 times their investment in an instant.

**Why the Market Was Fooled**

This case reflects an interesting phenomenon in prediction markets—high probability does not guarantee occurrence. Even though data on Kalshi showed a 98% win rate, there was still that 2% chance. And that 2% was precisely caught by some sharp traders.

At the time, the market generally believed that a White House press conference reaching 65 minutes was a reasonable expectation. However, the final outcome depended on the press secretary’s on-the-spot decision, an uncontrollable human factor that is often the hardest risk to quantify on prediction platforms.

**Lessons for Prediction Traders**

This operation reminds traders that even with high probabilities, vigilance is necessary. Although Kalshi is data-driven as a prediction platform, real-world variables often exceed model expectations. Behind that 50x return is a "contrarian" mindset of short sellers—believing in that tiny possibility.