BTC faces selling pressure at the $100,000 mark, and breaking through becomes the key to unlocking a rebound.

According to the latest observations from on-chain analysts, Bitcoin currently faces selling pressure from short-term holders. While early signs of this pressure are emerging, market demand confirmation signals remain insufficient. Technically, the short-term moving averages continue to operate below the zero line, becoming the main obstacle to price increases.

Where exactly is the cost basis for short-term holders?

The so-called average cost basis for short-term holders refers to the average price at which investors who have held their coins for less than 155 days collectively bought in. Based on current market conditions, the BTC trading price of ($91.88K) is still below this cost basis. What does this mean? Simply put, these investors are still in a loss. Their stop-loss or profit-taking selling pressure is temporarily frozen, leading to a significant restriction on potential sell-offs.

The psychological barrier at $100,000

On-chain data analysis shows that the $100,000 level has formed a local resistance. Once Bitcoin’s price reaches this level, short-term holders will return to the breakeven point (impas). This critical moment is extremely important—when investors recover from a loss to break-even, their mindset will shift, and the impulse to take profits will greatly increase, leading to a new wave of selling pressure.

The true signal of market reversal

To confirm that the market has entered a strong phase, the most direct indicator is whether Bitcoin’s closing price can stay above the short-term holders’ cost basis. Once this condition is met, short-term holders’ profit opportunities will reopen, and their selling plans will be adjusted accordingly. The market’s supply pressure is expected to ease. At this point, the foundation for the next upward trend will be truly solidified.