Is ETH caught in a "murder mystery" style fluctuation? An in-depth analysis of the true nature of the main force's pressure testing

Recently, Ethereum has exhibited a typical high-volatility pattern on the 4-hour K-line—price repeatedly tests support and resistance within the 3250-3310 range, even plunging to 3180 last night before quickly rebounding. Behind these seemingly chaotic fluctuations lies the ongoing battle among market participants. Is this “scripted” movement a test by the main players or a reflection of genuine market sentiment?

Surface Phenomena and Deep Logic

Signals from Price Positioning

Currently, ETH trades around $3.12K (24-hour change +0.18%), but more attention should be paid to its behavior at key levels. There has been no effective breakout above 3310, while 3180 consistently acts as a “panic stop” during declines. This regular testing is not random but indicative of structural market behavior.

From the order imbalance data, significant sell pressure accumulates in the 3300-3350 zone (order ratio remains negative), suggesting large sell orders create a clear supply barrier. Meanwhile, the rebound strength near 3180 exceeds expectations, often indicating strong psychological support at this level.

MACD Divergence Warning

Although the MACD indicator’s white-yellow line remains above zero, the momentum histogram shows a clear shrinking trend. This “price holding steady but momentum weakening” pattern is a classic divergence signal—implying bullish momentum is waning and the buying force is losing steam.

Possible Main Player Actions

Short-term Outlook

If the 3310 level cannot be effectively broken, a retest of 3220→3180 is likely. Breaking below 3180 support could open the way toward 3130-3100, posing a stronger test for the bulls.

Medium-term Structural Judgment

Only when the price volume confirms a steady hold above 3350 can an upward move toward 3400-3450 be expected. Currently, the main players frequently set buy support above 3300, engaging in “price support to manipulate the market,” which may be a typical trap to facilitate distribution—an obvious “fake breakout” pattern.

How Should Traders Respond?

Prioritize Position Management

Regardless of strategy, controlling risk exposure is paramount. Now is not the time for full positions; it’s advisable to keep positions below 50% of total capital to allow room for adjustments.

Phased Entry Strategy

• Short-term operations: Consider light short positions around 3310; if the price retests and stabilizes at 3220-3180, a low-cost rebound can be considered, with quick profit-taking.
• Medium-term opportunities: Avoid chasing high near 3300. If the price breaks down to 3130-3100 with decreasing volume and stabilizes, that could be an ideal entry point for phased accumulation.
• Key monitoring points: Keep a close eye on 3310 and 3180. Any effective break of these levels should prompt strategy adjustments aligned with the direction.

Upgrading Market Understanding

This round of market movement is fundamentally a psychological game among participants. Main players choose to probe at 3180 because it often represents retail stop-loss clusters; if they push up but fail to break through, they are testing market sentiment at a high level, accumulating chips for subsequent moves.

When you frequently encounter “buy then fall, sell then rise” scenarios, the issue is less about analytical shortcomings and more about insufficient understanding of the structural logic. Learning to recognize main players’ stress tests is far more important than chasing every small fluctuation.

Key Reminder: Keep a close watch on 3310 and 3180—these are the two critical levels that will determine the market direction.