December ADP data in the US becomes a decisive benchmark, BTC faces a trend watershed at 94,600

Tonight at 21:15, the US ADP employment data will be released, and this moment is considered decisive for Bitcoin’s price movement. Currently, BTC is priced at $91,920, up 1.44%, but the market’s real test is still ahead.

Why is Non-Farm Payroll Data So Critical: Acting as an Electronic Thermometer for Federal Reserve Policy

The US December ADP employment data is often called “Small Non-Farm,” and its importance lies in its ability to pre-announce the trend of the official non-farm payroll data on Friday. More deeply, this data directly influences the Fed’s judgment on the pace of interest rate cuts.

The market’s current expectation for a rate cut in January has subtly risen to 17.7%. What does this mean? If tonight’s ADP data is weaker than expected, it will reinforce expectations of rate cuts, potentially weakening the dollar and providing upward momentum for risk assets including Bitcoin; conversely, if the data exceeds expectations strongly, the rate cut expectations may be dampened, and risk assets like Bitcoin could face correction pressure.

Three Key Technical Levels: The Three Defensive Lines in the Bull-Bear Battle

The current technical pattern can be most clearly summarized as a three-layer structure:

First Barrier (94,600-94,760): This is the core resistance of this rally and the main intersection point for bulls and bears. If Bitcoin breaks through with volume and stabilizes above this level for more than an hour, the trend may reverse, with a target directly at 96,000 USD.

Secondary Support (92,000-91,500): If the current market corrects downward, the 92,000-91,500 range will serve as the first support zone. Buying interest will accumulate here, but if the critical psychological level of 91,500 is broken, panic may spread.

Deep Correction Zone (90,500-89,000): This is a deeper support level for this rally. If the price reaches this area, it will present a strong buying opportunity and is considered the golden pit for medium-term bulls to build positions.

The MACD indicator’s two lines are still operating above the zero line, indicating that the overall trend has not yet shown signs of fatigue, but the values are already trending downward, requiring an effective breakout to boost bullish sentiment.

Retail Trader Strategies: Two-Stage Operation Framework Before and After Data Release

Before the Data Announcement (Before 21:15): Simplify your position structure and avoid complex betting operations. Traders holding short positions should raise their stop-loss to above 94,760; those without positions can place small limit buy orders at 91,500 and 90,500, with a stop-loss set at 89,000, waiting for the market’s next signal.

After the Data Announcement (After 21:15): Focus on monitoring the performance of 94,600 and 91,500. If volume breaks through 94,600 convincingly and stabilizes within an hour, consider lightly adding positions targeting 96,000; if it quickly falls below 91,500, patiently wait for stabilization signals near 90,500 before considering long entries. The most taboo action is rushing to chase gains or cut losses immediately after the data release, which often becomes a trap set by the main players to trap retail traders.

Market Consensus Projection: First Shock and Absorption, Then Directional Release

Based on both fundamental news and technical analysis, before the release of major economic data, major funds tend to maintain a volatile consolidation, absorbing chips while observing policy guidance. After the data release, the market is likely to exhibit a pattern of “initial sharp reversal, then returning to technical fundamentals.”

If the data is positive, BTC may surge rapidly to test 94,600, but if it cannot effectively hold above this level, a quick retracement will wash out the floating positions; if the data is negative, there may be an initial sharp drop to 91,500 or even 90,500 to create panic, followed by a rebound driven by bottom-fishing funds.

Based on the current market structure, the final trend is more likely to unfold as “initial downward risk release, then a rebound supported by strong support,” which is a classic script repeatedly seen in the market.

Tonight will be a key moment for bulls and bears to face off. The current price is above $91,920, with resistance at 94,600 and support at 91,500-90,500. During the rapid fluctuations after the data release, whoever can grasp the support and rebound will hold the initiative for the next major upward wave.