When will Bitcoin actually turn around? Macroeconomics gives us an important answer

The last five days have added nearly $100 billion USD to the Bitcoin market. The price has reached $91,770, which prompts many to believe that we have already moved down. However, chain data and the behavior of large players paint a completely different picture.

Altcoins Lead - This is not the start of a new cycle

A typical start of a bull run should begin with Bitcoin at the forefront. This time, the opposite is happening. Bitcoin dominance is weakening, while altcoins are rallying. This is characteristic of a return movement, which appears after larger declines but has never historically turned into new trends.

What are the big whales doing? Still selling

A group of holders between 100 to 1,000 BTC — those who usually drive trend changes — remain net sellers. Even more importantly: net Bitcoin accumulation by active market participants is in decline. This was strongly visible in the past months during declines in Q3 2024 and early 2025, when these players were buying instead.

Technical signals reveal what’s next

Bitcoin has again approached the 50-week moving average but immediately fell below it — just like after the peak in 2021. It’s no surprise. Even in normal return waves, Bitcoin tends to jump to the level of 102,000 to 104,000 dollars at the 200-day moving average. If it reaches there, it will just be a reflection of historical similarity. But then, another decline will follow.

ISM gives a clear signal — we’re looking at months to years

Here’s a key macroeconomic observation: the ISM indicator is now at its lowest level in fourteen months and is falling sharply. This phenomenon has repeated many times — every serious bull run has occurred during a restructuring when the ISM rose above 50.

Right now, the ISM is lower. How long until it reaches the desired levels again? It could take months, but most likely we will wait until 2026.

Second half of 2026 — when everything will change

The appointment of a new Fed chair, the development of macroeconomic conditions, and alignment with Bitcoin’s four-year cycle — all suggest that the real turnaround will happen only in the second half of 2026. Only then will the conditions be met for a true cycle, not just a corrective jump.