BTC hovers around the 90,000 mark, with technical and fundamental risks resonating—Can the 89,000 liquidation zone hold as a focal point?

Technical Alert: 4-Hour Structure Shows Signs of Weakening

Bitcoin is currently fluctuating around 91.77K, still some distance from the key support level at 89,000, but the 4-hour chart has already triggered multiple warnings. The middle band of the BOLL indicator is running near 90,000, and the price has now broken below this middle band and is trading beneath it. The upper and lower bands are widening continuously, indicating increased volatility, and bearish momentum is accumulating. More notably, 90,000 has shifted from a previous support to a short-term resistance level, suggesting that the bulls’ defense is showing clear signs of loosening.

The technical target below points directly to the 89,000-88,000 range, which is both an important technical support zone and a liquidity-dense area. According to data from mainstream exchanges, if BTC falls below 89,000, the long liquidation scale could reach as high as 1.127 billion USD. Conversely, a break above 93,000 could trigger short liquidations of about 960 million USD. Massive liquidation orders are hanging below 89,000, and in high-volatility events, they are highly likely to be activated.

Fundamental “Dual Pressure”: Non-Farm Payrolls and Employment Indicators

Tonight, the US will release December non-farm payroll data, the most significant economic indicator of the month. Institutions generally expect weak employment growth, but the unemployment rate may further decline to 4.5%. This seemingly contradictory phenomenon reflects deep changes in the labor market—insufficient new jobs but a falling unemployment rate—intensifying market concerns about economic structural issues.

If the non-farm data shows employment growth below expectations, the Federal Reserve may face policy adjustment pressures, and risk aversion sentiment will surge. Risk assets will be the first to suffer from sell-offs, and as a high-risk asset, BTC is likely to face short-term pressure.

Risk Assessment: High-Risk Liquidity Hunting Zone

The technical “liquidation meat” and the fundamental “non-farm variable” form a dangerous resonance tonight. The massive liquidation zone below 89,000 acts like a huge liquidity magnet, with a very high probability of being activated during high-uncertainty events like non-farm data releases. This is not conspiracy theory but an objective market law driven by liquidity—prices tend to be attracted to areas with the densest liquidity.

If 89,000 is effectively broken downward, chain reactions of liquidation could trigger accelerated short-term declines, opening space for 88,000 or even lower. However, it’s important to note that large-scale liquidations are often accompanied by quick reversals; once short-term selling pressure is cleared, the market may form a local bottom and rebound.

Operational Framework and Recommendations

Conservative Strategy: Focus on signals indicating stabilization around 89,000. This zone features both technical support and liquidation-driven characteristics. If the price forms effective support here (e.g., consecutive daily closes in the green or a rebound to new highs), consider gradually entering positions. Always set strict stop-losses and deploy in batches to cope with high volatility.

Aggressive Strategy: If the rebound above 90,000 is weak and cannot be regained, the short-term bearish pattern remains unchanged. Consider quick short positions, but speed is key—enter and exit rapidly, as the area near 89,000 will see further increased volatility. Watch closely whether 89,000 is effectively broken; a breakdown signals entry into a deeper downside space.

Overall Judgment

Tonight is destined to be a night dominated by volatility. 89,000 becomes the first critical battleground—holding it allows the bulls to catch their breath, but pressure from above remains heavy; failing to hold it, short-term correction is inevitable. Prepare thoroughly, clarify your risk tolerance, and in this high-uncertainty environment, respond more rationally.