How strong is the US stock market? Just give a number and you'll understand — 40% of the world's stock market capitalization is in the US. Big in size, but the key is its earning power, which is also top-notch. The S&P 500 has an average annual return of 11.1% over the past 50 years. What does this mean? Compared to other regions' stock markets, the US stock market is undoubtedly the leader.
Many people ask: Since emerging countries like India and Brazil have such rapid GDP growth, shouldn't their stock market returns be even higher? Honestly, this logic seems reasonable, but data proves otherwise. The correlation between a country's GDP growth rate and its stock market returns is weak at best, sometimes even inversely related.
This is not just speculation; let's look at actual data from the past decade. We categorize the major global economies' stock markets into three groups: the US, developed markets outside the US (Western Europe, Japan, South Korea, Australia, Canada), and emerging markets (Brazil, India, South Africa, etc.). What are the results?
**Real comparison over the past ten years:**
US: 14.7% annualized, 295% total return Developed markets: 8.7% annualized, 130% total return Emerging markets: 8.2% annualized, 120% total return
Clear now? Not only have emerging markets been left behind by the US, but even developed countries outside the US are ahead. The cliché "High GDP growth = High stock returns" is directly debunked by the data.
Let's experience this with real money. Suppose you invested $100,000 in US stocks ten years ago. Now, it would be worth $395,000. Invest the same amount in other developed countries? Only $230,000, less than 60% of the US returns. Bet on emerging markets? Even worse, $220,000, still less than 60%.
Some might say: Maybe some poor markets are dragging down the overall data? Fine, let's look at the rankings of individual countries' stock performances over ten years:
**Top ten country stock market performances over ten years:**
US 14.7% / Canada 12.4% / Italy 11.1% / France 9.8% / South Korea 9.5% / India 8.8% / Australia 8.0% / Germany 7.9% / Singapore 7.9% / Japan 7.8% / UK 7.7% / China 5.4%
The US stock market remains firmly in first place. Take India, for example: invest $100,000 ten years ago, now it’s $232,000, only 59% of the US return. The overall pattern remains unchanged.
Why is this? The most critical reason is: companies in the S&P 500 are not just doing business in the US; about 40% of their revenue comes from overseas. So, in essence, buying US stocks is actually sharing in the dividends of global economic growth.
Many people like to talk about risk diversification and insist on allocating some assets overseas. But honestly, this approach is likely to drag down your long-term returns. Instead, it’s better to focus on US index funds. Abandon the gambler mentality of picking individual stocks and concentrate on steady index returns — the results are actually better.
In summary: Cherish your returns, stick to US stocks! Only buy index funds, not individual stocks!
View Original
This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.
12 Likes
Reward
12
5
Repost
Share
Comment
0/400
ZenMiner
· 01-13 07:12
The data is really solid; no one has been able to compare to the US stock market over the past ten years.
View OriginalReply0
GasDevourer
· 01-12 21:45
Wow, ten years ago ten thousand dollars is now almost four hundred thousand? Why didn't I get in earlier?
View OriginalReply0
SmartContractPlumber
· 01-12 21:44
The data is indeed there, but the logical flaw is not small. The S&P 500 can benefit from global growth dividends mainly because the corporate governance and authority control systems in the US are relatively sound, unlike some emerging markets where hidden operations in contract upgrades are more likely to occur. However, purely all-in on US stock indices? The risk concentration is also quite high, just like contracts without formal verification—appear stable on the surface but hidden dangers underneath.
View OriginalReply0
NeonCollector
· 01-12 21:34
Wow, ten years 395,000 vs 220,000, such a big gap, no wonder everyone is rushing into the US stock market.
View OriginalReply0
WhaleMinion
· 01-12 21:23
India's GDP growth is so rapid, yet the stock market returns are still being beaten by the US stock market. The gap is truly outrageous.
How strong is the US stock market? Just give a number and you'll understand — 40% of the world's stock market capitalization is in the US. Big in size, but the key is its earning power, which is also top-notch. The S&P 500 has an average annual return of 11.1% over the past 50 years. What does this mean? Compared to other regions' stock markets, the US stock market is undoubtedly the leader.
Many people ask: Since emerging countries like India and Brazil have such rapid GDP growth, shouldn't their stock market returns be even higher? Honestly, this logic seems reasonable, but data proves otherwise. The correlation between a country's GDP growth rate and its stock market returns is weak at best, sometimes even inversely related.
This is not just speculation; let's look at actual data from the past decade. We categorize the major global economies' stock markets into three groups: the US, developed markets outside the US (Western Europe, Japan, South Korea, Australia, Canada), and emerging markets (Brazil, India, South Africa, etc.). What are the results?
**Real comparison over the past ten years:**
US: 14.7% annualized, 295% total return
Developed markets: 8.7% annualized, 130% total return
Emerging markets: 8.2% annualized, 120% total return
Clear now? Not only have emerging markets been left behind by the US, but even developed countries outside the US are ahead. The cliché "High GDP growth = High stock returns" is directly debunked by the data.
Let's experience this with real money. Suppose you invested $100,000 in US stocks ten years ago. Now, it would be worth $395,000. Invest the same amount in other developed countries? Only $230,000, less than 60% of the US returns. Bet on emerging markets? Even worse, $220,000, still less than 60%.
Some might say: Maybe some poor markets are dragging down the overall data? Fine, let's look at the rankings of individual countries' stock performances over ten years:
**Top ten country stock market performances over ten years:**
US 14.7% / Canada 12.4% / Italy 11.1% / France 9.8% / South Korea 9.5% / India 8.8% / Australia 8.0% / Germany 7.9% / Singapore 7.9% / Japan 7.8% / UK 7.7% / China 5.4%
The US stock market remains firmly in first place. Take India, for example: invest $100,000 ten years ago, now it’s $232,000, only 59% of the US return. The overall pattern remains unchanged.
Why is this? The most critical reason is: companies in the S&P 500 are not just doing business in the US; about 40% of their revenue comes from overseas. So, in essence, buying US stocks is actually sharing in the dividends of global economic growth.
Many people like to talk about risk diversification and insist on allocating some assets overseas. But honestly, this approach is likely to drag down your long-term returns. Instead, it’s better to focus on US index funds. Abandon the gambler mentality of picking individual stocks and concentrate on steady index returns — the results are actually better.
In summary: Cherish your returns, stick to US stocks! Only buy index funds, not individual stocks!