#我的2026第一条帖 The Federal Reserve's new main lock-in! Powell takes office = Crypto bull market accelerator, dual on-chain + news-based ironclad evidence!

A single statement from Trump directly solidified the Fed chair candidate, with Kevin Waugh's nomination probability soaring to 60%, leading the pack. This macro shift is not a positive for the crypto market but a super strong confidence booster — a new round of main upward wave is already on the horizon!
1. Core macro logic:
Waugh = Crypto-friendly "Inflation Terminator"
Waugh's policy stance is almost tailor-made for the crypto market: he straightforwardly states "Inflation is the Fed's choice," with the core strategy being to control inflation through shrinking the balance sheet (QT), paving the way to lower nominal interest rates! This aligns perfectly with Trump's desire to reduce borrowing costs, implying that future dollar liquidity will shift from "tight balance" to "moderate easing," and risk assets have always been the biggest beneficiaries of liquidity.
More importantly, he opposes normalized QE and advocates for the Fed to return to its core mission. This "practical monetarism" can thoroughly repair market trust cracks in the dollar and open valuation space for crypto assets (especially Bitcoin's "digital gold" attribute). Compared to Powell's indecisiveness, Waugh's clear path will make institutional funds more willing to increase positions!
2. News resonance:
Global capital rushes into crypto track as regulation accelerates: Although the US "Digital Asset Clarification Act" is temporarily delayed, the bipartisan negotiation direction remains unchanged, and crypto assets stepping out of the gray area is inevitable;
Plus Trump pardoned CZ and gave a "green light" to the crypto industry, directly clearing policy risks.
Institutions are frantically bottom-fishing: Harvard funds treat Bitcoin ETF as their top holding, with holdings surging by 257%;
MicroStrategy continues to increase holdings, and Bitcoin ETF has recently seen net capital inflows, with institutions voting with real money.
Overseas funds entering: South Korea allows companies to buy crypto with 5% of their own capital, 3,500 companies with massive funds are on standby, and this incremental capital is conservatively in the trillions!
3. On-chain ironclad evidence: concentrated chips + liquidity buildup
Bitcoin's non-liquid supply hits a historic peak, indicating large holders and institutions are locking in and holding tight, with chip concentration comparable to the night before a bull market; stablecoin market cap has reached 266.5 billion, 99% anchored to the dollar and handling 94% of crypto trading volume. With Waugh's policies coming into effect, stablecoin market cap is expected to surge toward one trillion, directly injecting continuous liquidity into the market;
CME institutional long positions steadily grow, with large exchange liquidation pressure concentrated around the 110,000 level. Once broken, it will trigger over 120 million short liquidations, becoming a market booster!
Conclusion: Bullish stance, clear target!
Four major logical resonances — macro (liquidity easing) + policy (regulatory friendliness) + on-chain (chip concentration) + institutions (continuous accumulation) — crypto market has entered a structural bull phase where "buy orders exceed sell orders."
Bitcoin aims for $120,000 in the short term, Ethereum breaking $4,000 is just a matter of time, and mainstream altcoins will follow closely with a rebound!