#机构投资者采用 Seeing these expert opinions on the crypto market outlook for 2026, I was reminded of recent conversations with several seasoned investors. There is a common sense of a clear shift—the market is evolving from being cycle-driven to being influenced more by macroeconomic factors. What does this mean for our asset allocation strategies?

In the past, we often said that Bitcoin follows a four-year cycle, but now, after a large influx of institutional funds, the situation has changed. ETF approvals, increased corporate holdings—these developments are making crypto assets perform more like traditional financial assets. In other words, the future will depend more on macro factors such as global liquidity and Federal Reserve policies rather than just the halving schedule.

What does this mean for us? We need to stay alert. 2026 may not be simply a bull or bear market, but rather a period of structural consolidation. In this environment, excessive leverage has indeed been suppressed, but the risk points are hidden in areas we may not see clearly—new types of stablecoins, partial reserves of exchanges, and implicit leverage products.

My advice is: don’t just focus on prices; learn to read on-chain signals and fund flows. Changes in the number of large BTC wallets, trends in stablecoin supply, and funding rates can often reveal risks earlier. At the same time, maintain moderate position management. In the context of deepening institutional adoption and long-term trends, stay patient but cautious. Safety should always come before returns.