#GateLaunchpadIMU 2026年加密市场从炒作转变为“谁在买、钱从哪来”

Entering 2026, the crypto market is undergoing an "internal upgrade"—prices may not surge wildly as before, but the market's "underlying structure" is changing profoundly.
According to the latest annual outlook released by crypto exchange KK, these changes mainly stem from two aspects:
First, macroeconomic uncertainties (such as inflation, interest rates, and slowing economic growth)
Second, an increasing amount of institutional funds are beginning to dominate Bitcoin's movement.
KK economist Thomas Perfumo pointed out that although Bitcoin remains the "barometer" of market risk sentiment, the driving forces behind its price have changed. In the past, retail investors drove the market, but now, spot Bitcoin ETFs listed in the US and some corporate treasuries (like MicroStrategy) that treat Bitcoin as an asset allocation are influencing the market.
For example: In 2025, these institutional channels bought nearly $44 billion worth of Bitcoin, yet Bitcoin's price didn't rise significantly and was even somewhat "disappointing." Why? Because many long-term holders (such as early investors) sold their holdings to take profits, offsetting the upward pressure from new funds. The result: money came in, but prices didn't skyrocket—this is very different from the past when "funds would cause a surge."
Perfumo believes that the current macro environment is the key determinant of market direction. Slowing global economic growth, stubborn inflation, and slower central bank rate cuts all put pressure on risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
He also warns: surface calmness does not mean safety. If market liquidity suddenly tightens (for example, banks or institutions withdraw funds), volatility could erupt suddenly.

Stablecoins and Regulation: Two Major Pillars in 2026
Besides institutional funds, KK highlights two key trends:
Increasing importance of stablecoins: USDT, USDC, and other dollar-pegged stablecoins have hit record-high circulation. They are not only trading media but also the "blood" of on-chain liquidity.
Accelerating US regulation: For example, legislation like the "GENIUS Act" for stablecoins and broader reforms in crypto market rules. These policies will determine "how money gets on-chain" and "where innovation happens" in the future.
However, institutional momentum may also face bottlenecks. The inflow of funds into Bitcoin ETFs in 2025 was slower than in 2024; companies that raised money by issuing stocks to buy Bitcoin now see reduced stock premiums, making financing more difficult. Without clear "market optimism" (risk-on sentiment), it will be hard for them to trigger another big wave.

Bitcoin is not gold, but it can help diversify risk
Renowned investor Cathie Wood also expressed similar views in her 2026 outlook. She pointed out that in 2025, gold rose 65%, while Bitcoin fell 6%. But don’t forget, gold can be mined continuously, whereas the total supply of Bitcoin is forever capped at 21 million—making it more scarce. More importantly, Bitcoin's correlation with other mainstream assets (like stocks and bonds) is very low. Wood even said, "The correlation between Bitcoin and gold is lower than that between the S&P 500 and bonds." This means that if you want your portfolio to be more stable during turbulent times and pursue higher returns, Bitcoin is actually a good "risk diversification tool."

Will it rise to $100,000 next? For short-term traders, the most concerned question is: Is Bitcoin's recent surge to $100,000 a real breakout or just a temporary breather? Ruslan Lienkha, Head of Market at YouHodler, believes that compared to US stocks, Bitcoin is now significantly undervalued. He expects the price to either pull back to around $90,000 to test support or continue upward to $100,000—this level will become the next key threshold.
Not just Bitcoin, the entire industry is evolving
KK also mentions that in 2026, bigger opportunities may lie not in Bitcoin itself but in asset tokenization and DeFi (Decentralized Finance).
For example, turning real estate, bonds, or even stocks of large companies like Apple or Microsoft into digital tokens on the blockchain. Standard Chartered Bank is optimistic about this, especially believing that Ethereum will benefit the most, as many institutions are moving real-world assets onto Ethereum. Over the past year, such tokenized assets have grown rapidly. If in the future ordinary people can buy and sell "tokenized US stocks" via their phones, it will bring a whole new global demand and on-chain trading activity.

In summary: The crypto market in 2026 may no longer be the familiar "boom and bust" cycle, but a "stress test" driven by macroeconomics, institutional behavior, and regulatory frameworks.
Who is buying, how the money enters, and how rules are set—these "underlying rule" changes may be more important than price itself.