2026-01-18 11:28:47

January 18, 2026, the market has once again reached a critical point.

In the short term, the market has broken through $97,000, but $94,000 has become the new support level. Going long at this position carries significant risk, so it is recommended to keep a light position or even wait and see.

As long as the certainty of the 4-year cycle has not disappeared, it is worth continuing to believe in this pattern. Risk control is the top priority—hold at least 90% of your spot holdings so you can survive longer in the larger cycle.

On a side note: every night before sleep, try to find a way to make yourself a little smarter than when you wake up.

Currently, BTC's trend is highly synchronized with the stock trend of a certain leading tech company, which is an interesting phenomenon. Patience will be rewarded.

From a long-term perspective, Bitcoin should wait for a shorting opportunity at this position. The bullish trend is strengthening, and there’s no rush to short now. The next long-term shorting point has not yet arrived.

On the altcoin side, the index is only at 39, which is not suitable for buying. Honestly, there’s no clear reason to hold altcoins at the moment. Watching and waiting is the best strategy.

Personally, I have allocated about 30% of my position in a certain coin around $2.1, and the rest is waiting for better opportunities.

From a long-term chart perspective, Bitcoin will inevitably test the $80,000 support line again. Only after this support is effectively tested can a third wave of market movement begin, breaking through $120,000. Conversely, if $80,000 is lost, and the price even drops to $70,000, $60,000, or $50,000, altcoins will face a bloodbath. Until the 4-year cycle clearly invalidates, it’s best to trust it, so you can better protect your principal.

Disclaimer: The above is only personal analysis and does not constitute any investment advice.

BTC-0,08%

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DefiPlaybook

· 6h ago

Ninety percent spot trading is truly a long-standing secret to survival, much smarter than my previous reckless LP farming. Shitcoin index 39? There's really no good opportunity to farm, better to wait and see. Whether the support level at 94,000 can hold is probably the key to whether the market can continue to take off later. The fact that Bitcoin is moving in sync with tech stocks is interesting, meaning that before the macro turns, BTC is still a financial asset. Once the $80,000 level is broken, shitcoins will be wiped out immediately. Just thinking about it is a bit scary, but luckily I didn't hold a heavy position. The advice to hold a light position and wait is very reasonable, after all, the bulls are still running, no need to rush to buy the dip. Be a little smarter than yourself every night before sleep—this is a great saying, but I usually just become a bit more foolish before bed.

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MEVHunterX

· 6h ago

94,000 is the real support; chasing the high now just waiting to be cut. --- 97,000 approaching the top, much more comfortable to wait and see. --- Four-year cycle, this wave should be trusted; history always rhymes. --- Shanzhai index 39 is really outrageous; holding spot assets is still the most reliable. --- 80,000 USD is the key; only after breaking through can we dare to dream of 120,000. --- BTC syncing with tech stocks? Now this is interesting, think about it carefully, it's terrifying. --- Light position to go long is the right way; heavy position just waiting to be trapped. --- Waiting for the next dip, it's still early. --- Thinking of becoming smarter before bed haha, this guy has awakened. --- 30% position at $2.1, the rest depends on the situation, steady.

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MidnightSnapHunter

· 7h ago

97,000 has been broken, but 94,000 is the real support. The risk for the bulls in this wave is huge. I think it's better to stay on the sidelines. Hold 90% of spot holdings, or you won't last long in the big cycle. You want to buy when the altcoin index is at 39? Wake up, you can't see any reason. 80,000 is the key defense line. If it breaks, altcoins will have to be wiped out, but I still trust the cycle.

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AlgoAlchemist

· 7h ago

You must hold the 94k level, otherwise a pullback to 80,000 could be deadly.

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ForkMaster

· 7h ago

94,000 is indeed a bit of a hot spot. Light positions are the way to go. Don't be blinded by FOMO. Altcoin index 39? Laughing. Those buying the dip now are just sending their tokens to the slaughterhouse. As long as the $80,000 support holds, everything is just empty talk. Let's wait and see. 90% spot holdings to sleep soundly. I played this game three years ago. Is a certain tech stock moving in sync with BTC? That’s definitely worth pondering. Holding 30% of my position at $2.1, the rest is waiting for the right wind. That’s what I call prudent. Falling to $50,000? Altcoins are heading to the underworld. Don’t cry when that happens. Light positions for watching the market? Sounds good, but actually it just means I haven't made up my mind. Let’s keep watching the show. Most of the current bulls entering the market will be proven wrong, and that one is almost there.

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DataPickledFish

· 7h ago

If the 94,000 support level holds, we'll continue; if it breaks, I need to consider reducing my position.

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