#以太坊价格与ETF After reviewing Murphy's on-chain data analysis, I have to say that this logic is quite hardcore. The ancient chips costing $378 each repeatedly escape above $4,000, and then ETH begins to top out periodically. This is no longer a coincidence—it's a real story of chip game theory written on the chain.

Pay special attention to two details: First, the two massive profit-taking waves in 2024 ($1 billion on June 10) are closely related to the ETF expansion pace. Large institutional entries indeed pushed up the coin price, but they also provided these long-term holders with perfect escape windows. Second, although the supply of ancient chips is decreasing, the remaining 10.2 million ETH still have enough market influence.

The takeaway for follow-trade strategies is: when you see signals of large amounts of chips unlocking in concentration, it's time to start adjusting your position allocation. This doesn't mean you must operate in the opposite direction, but you should be aware that the upcoming pullback could be deeper than expected. I previously ignored this signal and chased high in September 2025, resulting in a sharp retracement. The current strategy is to automatically reduce position leverage or switch to more conservative trading accounts when such risk signals appear.

Practical experience proves that on-chain data never lies.