【BTC Structure Positioning: Accelerated Bear Phase After Key Breakdown】

The price has effectively broken below the critical daily support level of 94,800, currently trading below all major moving averages. MA5 (92,644) is close to the price, showing a very weak alignment. The market structure has shifted from “high-level consolidation” to “unilateral decline.”

Bull and Bear Logic Deduction:

· Bearish Logic (Dominant): The key integer level and the previous dense support zone (94,800-95,000) were broken by a long bearish candle, confirming a downtrend. Moving averages are arranged in a standard bearish pattern, MACD has widened significantly below the zero line twice, with green bars (-288.1) rapidly expanding, indicating accelerating downward momentum. Its core target is to push the price to test the next important support zone (90,000-91,200).
· Bullish Logic (Desperate Defense): RSI (20.4) has entered a severe oversold area, with a strong technical rebound (correction) demand in the short term. However, any meaningful rebound requires the price to at least re-establish above MA10 (93,848) and recover some lost ground, which is difficult under current momentum. Bulls can only rely on deep oversold conditions to passively defend.

Key Levels and Operational Framework:

1. Resistance Zone: 93,200-93,800 (MA5 to MA10 area) as the first rebound resistance. 94,500-95,000 (original support platform) as the core strong resistance that cannot be crossed.
2. Support Zone: No obvious near-term support; the next key technical target is in the 90,000-91,200 area (previous low platform).
3. Operational Framework:
· Bearish Strategy: Patiently wait for a technical rebound to the 93,200-93,800 zone. If the rebound shows weak or stagnating candlestick signals, it presents a high-probability shorting opportunity. Stop-loss should be placed above 94,000. If the price instead consolidates weakly without a rebound, it may continue to decline directly.
· Bullish Strategy (Extreme Caution): Strictly avoid catching falling knives during the decline. Only consider aggressive short-term trades when the price quickly hits the strong support zone of 90,000-91,200 and shows clear bottoming structures on the hourly chart (such as divergence or volume-increasing bullish engulfing candles), with very small positions and stop-loss below 90,000.

Conclusion: The market has entered a unilateral downtrend fully controlled by bears. All rebounds should be viewed as opportunities to reduce positions or establish new shorts, rather than trend reversal signals. Maintaining a bearish mindset before the price reclaims 95,000 is the only rational choice.

Subscribers can access a downward target matrix based on volatility calculations, as well as real-time monitoring and strategy switching guides for “oversold rebounds” and “persistent downtrends.”

Disclaimer: The above analysis is for market opinion sharing only and does not constitute any investment advice. Cryptocurrency is highly volatile; please ensure proper risk management and independent decision-making. #周末行情分析