#欧美关税风波冲击市场

Trump once again uses tariffs as a political weapon, directly targeting European countries. This provocative move instantly shattered market expectations of stability, with risk aversion flooding in like a flood, and the cryptocurrency market—already at high levels—being the first to be affected. Bitcoin suddenly plunged from its high, with long positions facing a double squeeze from geopolitical tensions and liquidity pressures.

The core logic behind this market pricing is not traditional trade deficit adjustment, but a paradigm shift in U.S. foreign strategy. This tariff threat not only targets core member states like France and Germany but also unusually links to territorial issues such as Greenland and sovereignty. This indicates that tariffs have transformed from a simple economic barrier into a comprehensive strategic tool. Rapid responses within the EU and discussions on counter-coercion tools suggest that the global trade environment is entering a high-friction, low-growth chaotic period. For global investors, this uncertainty is the most costly factor in asset pricing.

In the face of extreme macro panic, Bitcoin has demonstrated a strong High Beta characteristic. Institutional investors, aiming to hedge traditional market risks or lock in profits, often withdraw liquidity from the most liquid crypto assets first. Long-term high-level oscillations have accumulated a massive amount of bullish contracts. When tariff news triggered an initial 3%~5% decline, it quickly activated sell orders and forced liquidations, causing a flash crash driven by a cascade of stop-losses. Rather than market pricing in a trade war, it’s more accurate to say that the trade war was the straw that broke the camel’s back and triggered a high-leverage bomb.

The market is already pricing in the potential ongoing shocks to the global supply chain in 2026. This pricing is somewhat rational, as prolonged trade friction will indeed suppress global liquidity. The severity of the flash crash is largely due to technical liquidations rather than a fundamental collapse. Currently, tariffs have not been officially implemented, and EU retaliations are still under assessment. The current low price levels resemble a stress test for the worst-case scenario rather than the start of a long-term bear market.

After 1-2 weeks of leverage unwinding, the market will enter a phase of reduced volume consolidation. The key point to watch is whether the psychological threshold of $90,000 - $92,000 can hold. If trade frictions trigger a rise in global inflation expectations, Bitcoin’s narrative may shift from risk assets back to anti-inflation/ non-sovereign value storage. If this logic is accepted by the market, the current sharp decline could instead be a redefinition of a long-term buying opportunity. Caution is needed regarding negotiations at key time points in February and June between the US and Europe, as well as the U.S. Supreme Court’s judicial rulings on tariff powers.

The current turbulence is a projection of the reorganization of the global order onto financial markets. For investors, deleveraging is the most urgent defensive strategy at present. Until policy uncertainties clear, the market is likely to seek a new equilibrium amid intense volatility.