【ETH 1-Hour Structural Logic Deduction】

#欧美关税风波冲击市场
The price continues to operate below the moving average resistance zone formed by MA20-MA100 (3201-3274) and has broken below the previous low support platform, indicating a clear bearish structure. The current core contradiction lies in the confrontation between the extremely weak trend structure and the short-term oversold indicators.

Core logic for bulls and bears:

1. Bearish structure logic: The price has effectively broken below the key previous platform (~3300) and is constrained by all major moving averages, with a complete downward trend structure on the hourly chart. MACD is below the zero line, indicating that bearish momentum remains dominant.
2. Bullish repair logic: RSI (27.09) has entered the oversold zone, showing that short-term selling pressure may be overly released, with an inherent need for a technical rebound. The MACD green bars are slightly converging, indicating a slowdown in downward momentum.

Key observation points:

· Resistance above: 3220-3270 (MA20-MA100 zone). This is the core pressure area to test any rebound strength. If the rebound cannot effectively challenge this zone, the weak trend remains unchanged.
· Support below: 3150-3160 (recent oscillation lows). If broken, the downward space may open further.
· Focus of observation: The market’s reaction to the test of the 3200 level (recent multiple contest points) and the resistance zone formed by the upper moving averages. Also, watch whether RSI can rebound from the oversold area and drive an effective price rebound.

Market deduction and summary:
The current market is in a clear downtrend, but short-term indicators show that downward momentum is waning. If the price can hold above the 3150-3160 zone and build a consolidation platform, it may brew a technical rebound against the moving average resistance zone. However, until the price breaks through and stabilizes above 3220, the overall structure remains under the control of the bears, and any upward movement should first be regarded as a rebound rather than a reversal.

Patience should be maintained at this stage, observing the market’s response at key price levels and waiting for clearer buy-sell balance signals.

Disclaimer: The above analysis is for market opinion sharing only and does not constitute any investment advice. Cryptocurrency volatility is extremely high; please ensure proper risk management and independent decision-making.