Is XRP breaking through the deadlock or just a short-term correction? The truth behind the $1 billion spot ETF

Current Situation: The Tug-of-War Between Demand and Market Sentiment

Ripple (XRP) is currently trading at $1.93, down 34.74% since the beginning of the year. Interestingly, the management assets of the US spot XRP ETF have surpassed the $1 billion mark. This contradictory phenomenon reflects a significant divergence between institutional investors and retail market sentiment.

Traditional investors’ participation in XRP continues to grow, mainly due to Ripple’s long trading history and relatively clear regulatory framework. However, this institutional confidence has not effectively translated into upward price momentum, and in the context of the overall sluggish altcoin market, XRP appears isolated and unsupported.

Supply-Side Concerns and Opportunities

On-chain data reveals a noteworthy trend. Approximately 750 million XRP have been withdrawn from exchanges in recent weeks, leaving only about 1.5 billion XRP on trading platforms. If this trend continues, a supply tightening scenario could occur as early as early 2026.

This is a positive signal for long-term holders but introduces uncertainty and price volatility for short-term traders. Especially with ongoing institutional inflows, reduced supply should support price increases, but currently, this force is being offset by widespread market pessimism.

Technical Analysis: Triangle Consolidation Indicates a Turning Point

According to analyst Ali Charts, XRP is consolidating within a triangle pattern, which typically signals imminent volatility. Once the price breaks out or falls below this range, fluctuations could reach as high as 10%.

The key support level is $1.80. A clear breakdown below this level could see XRP drop to $1.37. Conversely, an upward reversal would require a significant increase in trading volume and a breakout from the current bearish structure, but such signals are not yet clearly evident.

Short-Term Range-Bound, Long-Term Catalysts Needed

Senior researcher Jake Kennis from Nansen predicts that XRP will remain range-bound in the short term. He notes that altcoins generally only perform well after Bitcoin stabilizes or forms a clear bottom. As macroeconomic conditions improve, more favorable market conditions may emerge in the second half of 2026.

Kennis emphasizes that the next major move for XRP will depend on clear triggers, including growth in spot ETF assets, progress in real payment system applications, and increased institutional participation—not short-term price momentum.

Price Outlook: Between Cautious and Optimistic

A conservative estimate suggests that, without significant catalysts, XRP will stay within the $1.80–$1.90 range. Optimists believe that if ETF inflows increase in the second half of 2026, regulatory conditions remain favorable, and the crypto market recovers, XRP could rise to $3.00–$4.00 or even higher.

In any case, long-term confidence in XRP remains, but the market currently lacks sufficient momentum to sustain continuous price growth. Investors should be patient until Bitcoin stabilizes and altcoin sentiment improves.