Bitcoin 2026: When the Longer Cycle and Price Peak Are Delayed

A strange phenomenon is occurring in the market - Bitcoin has dropped 40% despite global M2 liquidity continuously increasing. Currently, BTC is trading at $91.26K with a 24-hour volatility of -1.97%, but the economic model that investors have trusted for a long time has been broken.

Liquidity Increases But Bitcoin Still Declines: Where Is the Fault?

In previous years, Bitcoin and global M2 operated in tandem. When central banks pumped money into the system, Bitcoin rose accordingly. But this cycle is entirely different.

M2 is continuously increasing. Gold is rising. The money supply in the economy is growing. But Bitcoin? Instead of soaring high, it has fallen. This is the contradiction that Nathan Sloan and Raoul Pal pointed out - the infiltration pressure of liquidity into the crypto market has not occurred as expected.

“Everyone expected a super high level. But the result was completely the opposite,” Sloan commented on the difference between forecasts and reality.

Why the Fed Is Prolonging the Rate-Hiking Cycle

The deeper reason lies in monetary policy. US government debt is skyrocketing, and interest costs are becoming increasingly burdensome. The theory suggests that to refinance, the government needs lower interest rates. But Jerome Powell is maintaining high rates to control inflation.

This decision has delayed cheap money - the kind of liquidity that usually fuels crypto booms. The result? Bitcoin’s 4-year cycle has extended to 5 years.

According to Raoul Pal’s analysis, the bull market is not over, just postponed. The peak may not occur in 2025 as many expect, but could shift to 2026.

Historical Pattern: Decline Then Boom

History may repeat itself. In 2019, the Fed ended monetary tightening and began easing. But Bitcoin continued sideways and then declined another 6 months before surging.

Liquidity takes time to deeply permeate through market layers. If this pattern repeats, a further 50% drop is entirely possible before reaching the bottom and reversing.

But when that happens, the rally could be very strong. The altcoin season will follow, but first Bitcoin must lead the way.

Key Point: The Coming Months Are Critical

The next few months will decide everything. A new Fed Chair is expected to cut interest rates. This change could reignite liquidity and the infiltration pressure of money into the market.

Raoul Pal’s thesis will be confirmed or rejected by the end of Q1. If correct, the crypto bull run has never been canceled – only delayed.

FAQ

How high will Bitcoin go in 2026?
Analysts forecast Bitcoin could peak in 2026, with potential surpassing $200,000 if liquidity flows and macro conditions are favorable.

What are the main risks for Bitcoin in 2026?
Risks include global economic recession, stricter crypto regulations, reduced liquidity, or Bitcoin breaking below key support levels.

What will Bitcoin be worth in 2030?
Projections for 2030 range from $380,000 to $900,000, driven by limited supply, long-term adoption, and increasing participation of institutional investors.

Is Bitcoin a good hedge against inflation in the long term?
Yes. Bitcoin’s fixed supply makes it an attractive asset protection tool amid currency devaluation and prolonged economic instability.