Can MicroStrategy's Bitcoin gamble withstand the market test? Peter Schiff strikes again

How Much Return Can Fifty Billion Dollars Buy?

When Bitcoin’s price drops to around $85,555 and the entire crypto market declines nearly 4%, economist Peter Schiff once again launches a fierce attack on MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin strategy. This time, his focus is on an embarrassing fact: over the past five years, MicroStrategy has invested over $5 billion in Bitcoin, yet the returns have been far below expectations.

Schiff questions Michael Saylor and his company’s decision logic on social media. According to his calculations, MicroStrategy has spent approximately $4.8 to $5 billion to purchase Bitcoin, with an average cost basis close to $75,000 per coin. Surprisingly, despite long-term gains in Bitcoin, MicroStrategy’s current unrealized profit is less than 15%.

At the moment of market chaos, derivative liquidation triggered a loss of over $6 million in a single day. Schiff takes this opportunity to pose a counterquestion: what if this huge sum had been invested in gold? His answer is—returns could at least double, if not more.

The Embarrassment in the Face of Data

MicroStrategy currently holds about 671,268 Bitcoins, with a total value of approximately $5.03 billion, based on real-time prices at about $86,000 per coin. However, over the past year, MSTR stock has fallen more than 60%, with high volatility still prevailing.

Impressively, Saylor has not wavered in the face of criticism. He recently announced an additional purchase of 10,645 Bitcoins, costing about $980 million, with an average cost basis of approximately $92,098. He even claims that Bitcoin’s return rate this year has reached 24.9%, using this to justify his investment conviction.

But from a macro perspective, this steadfastness seems somewhat lonely—during times of increasing economic uncertainty, the short-term performance of crypto assets appears more like risky assets rather than safe havens.

The Rebound of Gold and Silver

Another dimension of this controversy comes from the strong performance of precious metals. Gold prices have reached about $4,350, less than 1% below the all-time high. Over the past five years, gold has increased by approximately 131%; during the same period, Bitcoin’s increase is about 344%, but with significantly higher volatility.

Silver’s performance is equally eye-catching. After breaking through its previous price channel, silver hovers around a historic high of about $64. Factors supporting this include ETF fund inflows and rising demand for hard assets. Market expectations are that silver prices will also rise sharply by 2025, potentially exceeding 100%.

The relative strength collapse between Bitcoin and silver indicates that capital is fleeing from cryptocurrencies into traditional precious metals.

Saylor’s Logic vs. Schiff’s Doubts

Why did Saylor choose crypto assets instead of stocks, bonds, or precious metals? Supporters argue that MicroStrategy’s strategy is based on Bitcoin’s long-term scarcity rather than short-term stability. Saylor’s creed is: Bitcoin is a digital asset itself, not just a trading tool.

Schiff’s view is entirely opposite—corporate balance sheets need low volatility and stable returns, not risky positions. While it cannot be proven that Saylor has some “secret weapon,” his strategy indeed sets MicroStrategy apart from traditional companies—such allocations amplify profits in bull markets and intensify pain in bear markets.

The Ultimate Test in 2025

MicroStrategy’s strategy is not a failure but is undergoing a severe test. Over five years, crypto assets have outperformed gold, but short-term declines have lowered unrealized profits, sparking external doubts.

Looking ahead to 2025, gold and silver may continue to shine, while Bitcoin’s volatility will still test investors’ nerves. The real question boils down to one: when evaluating MicroStrategy, are investors focusing on short-term fluctuations or sticking to long-term conviction?