Underwhelming 2025 Token Launch Season: Why Four-Fifths of Projects Are Trading Below TGE Levels

The 2025 token generation event (TGE) market is painting a grim picture for early investors. Recent market analysis reveals a sobering trend that challenges the traditional narrative around participating in token launches.

The Scale of Underperformance

Research data tracked 118 token launches and uncovered a striking pattern: 84.7% of these projects are currently trading with a fully diluted valuation (FDV) lower than their opening valuations. This means the vast majority of tokens that hit the market this year have disappointed early participants. The numbers are particularly stark when examining the median decline—token FDV has plummeted 71% from issuance, while market capitalization has contracted by 67%.

Why This Matters for Token Investors

The lackluster performance of 2025 TGE tokens suggests a fundamental shift in how markets are pricing new project launches. Only 15% of projects managed to deliver positive returns since their initial pricing, indicating that the era of “buy at TGE and profit” has largely ended. This shift reflects broader market conditions, including increased skepticism toward new entrants and tighter valuation discipline.

Reconsidering Early-Stage Entry Strategies

What was once considered an advantage—getting in at the ground floor during a token’s initial generation event—can no longer be relied upon as a guaranteed profit opportunity. The analyst behind this data concludes that TGE participation, in its traditional sense, is no longer a reliable mechanism for early-stage investment gains. Rather, success in the token market increasingly requires rigorous project evaluation beyond just timing.

The 2025 data serves as a reality check for investors who believed that token launches automatically presented asymmetric opportunities. The market has become more efficient and discerning, making it essential for participants to develop more sophisticated analysis frameworks.