January 21 BTC Technical Analysis Strategy

- Core conclusion: Daily chart is bearish, short-term weak oscillation; if the rebound is weak, the downtrend continues, mainly shorting on rebounds and lightly holding positions for support stabilization and trying longs as a secondary strategy.
- Current price: $89,384 (24h range $87,896-$92,836, down -3.97%).

Key Levels and Indicators

- Daily: Break below EMA20 ($91,890) and the 100-day moving average, RSI at 41.81 indicating neutral to weak, MACD bearish crossover with increasing volume, trend weakening.
- 12h: Retracement to the previous upward 0.618 Fibonacci level at $87,200, combined with weekly moving average support, possibly a short-term rebound.
- 4h: Bullish candle with no lower shadow, minor consolidation and correction, but rebound strength limited.

Support and Resistance (Key Levels)

- Support: $87,200 (strong, 0.618 retracement + moving average), $85,000 (strong, previous high-volume trading zone).
- Resistance: $91,890 (strong, EMA20), $95,000-$96,000 (strong, previous high levels).

Trading Strategies (Actionable)

- Short strategy: Rebound to $91,500-$91,800, gradually open short positions, stop-loss at $92,500, target $88,000-$87,200, break below targets $85,000.
- Long strategy: Stabilize at $87,200-$87,500 (4h bullish close with volume), lightly try longs, stop-loss at $86,500, target $89,500-$90,000, exit if encountering resistance.
- Position and risk management: Total position ≤30%, individual stop-loss ≤2%, strictly follow rules, avoid chasing highs and panic selling.

Market Evolution Scenarios

- Optimistic: Hold above $91,890 with volume increase, return to $92,000-$94,000 range for oscillation.
- Neutral: Weak oscillation within $87,200-$91,890, waiting for direction.
- Pessimistic: Break below $87,200 with volume, decline to $85,000, or even test $80,000-$82,000.