Weekend risk increases | Technical weakness combined with worsening geopolitical situation, BTC/ETH may face correction pressure

Market volatility has intensified this week, and with the weekend approaching, multiple risk factors are intertwined, requiring investors to stay alert. Currently, the crypto market is facing dual pressures from technical adjustments and geopolitical risks, with significant fluctuations expected over the weekend.

BTC Continues to Face Pressure, Support Levels Face Second Test

Bitcoin’s upward momentum came to a halt midweek. As of today, BTC is approximately $90,160 (daily increase +1.99%), appearing to stabilize but still unable to shake off the short-term downtrend. Notably, BTC has repeatedly tested the $90,000 key support level, a position that has been closely watched by the market for several days. Now, it is being tested continuously, which is undoubtedly an unsettling signal.

If BTC breaks below the $90,000 psychological support, downside risks will further materialize. In comparison, Ethereum remains relatively stable, currently trading around $3,020. Its overall trend is still better than BTC, but if BTC continues to decline, other major cryptocurrencies will also find it difficult to remain unaffected.

Middle East Tensions Escalate as Weekend Variable, Market Signals Show Unusual Betting Activity

Recently, the US has increased military deployments in the Middle East, with reports suggesting that the US may take military action against Iran over the weekend. This potential conflict has attracted market attention.

Even more concerning is the abnormal betting activity on the well-known prediction market Polymarket—indications suggest that insiders are betting on Israel launching an attack on Iran within January. If Middle East tensions further escalate, it could have a substantial impact on global financial markets and crypto assets. Investors should closely monitor the situation, as this could become the biggest black swan event this weekend.

Meme Coins Listing Becomes Routine, Market Sentiment Concerns

Yesterday, meme coins such as “Binance Life” and “I’m Coming” listed on Binance became community focal points. Although meme coins experienced a wave of popularity in early January, a deeply ingrained short-term trading expectation has formed—that listing equals a dump, which has become a collective perception.

This phenomenon reflects a deeper issue: no matter how well the project narrative is crafted, investors generally anticipate that the moment a coin is listed is when major sell-offs occur. In the long run, this collective expectation could severely harm the healthy development of the entire ecosystem, but for now, everyone can only accept this reality with resignation.

Non-Farm Payroll Data Coming, Prepare for Sudden Volatility Before the Weekend

Tonight, the non-farm employment data will be released. Based on past experience, similar key economic indicators tend to trigger significant market fluctuations, and sharp moves are expected tonight. However, compared to economic data, the current key factor influencing market trends is geopolitical developments.

In summary, technical downside pressure, market sentiment chaos caused by meme coins, uncertainty around the non-farm data, and escalating Middle East tensions suggest that the market may face multiple tests before the weekend. Investors are advised to manage risks carefully, stay updated on relevant news, and respond cautiously to potential volatility.