"Ethereum Year" Critical Point: Investment Opportunities Driven by Institutional Optimism and Fundamentals

Standard Chartered’s Global Digital Asset Research Team recently released their latest report. Despite lowering short-term price expectations, they remain optimistic about Ethereum’s mid- to long-term prospects. Research head Geoffrey Kendrick explicitly stated that 2026 will be a pivotal turning point for Ethereum, with market performance expected to lead other cryptocurrencies. Due to global capital reallocation adjustments, institutional funds flowing into the crypto market have become more cautious, but Ethereum still remains favored—reflecting the market’s deep recognition of its fundamentals.

ETH Real-Time Market Snapshot

As of January 22, 2026, Ethereum (ETH) is priced at $3,000, with a 24-hour increase of +2.10%. The 24-hour trading volume reached $781.23 million, with a circulating market cap of $361.64 billion. In comparison, Bitcoin (BTC) is priced at $89,700, with a 24-hour increase of +1.42%, and a market cap of $1.79 trillion. Based on the gains, Ethereum’s short-term momentum slightly outperforms Bitcoin.

Standard Chartered Price Forecast: Short-term Downgrade, Long-term Bullish Outlook

Affected by overall market conditions, Standard Chartered has revised down its short-term target price for Ethereum. The end-of-2026 target has been adjusted from the original $12,000 to $7,500. The 2027 forecast is $15,000, and 2028 is $22,000. These adjustments reflect market volatility, but more importantly, they show the bank’s upgraded stance on Ethereum’s long-term outlook.

The bank has raised its forecasted price for the end of 2029 to $30,000 and has also set a new target of surpassing $40,000 by the end of 2030. Geoffrey Kendrick emphasized in an investment note: “As blockchain applications become increasingly widespread, I believe 2026 will mark a new era for Ethereum, full of imagination, much like 2021.” This statement reflects institutional confidence in Ethereum’s structural advantages.

Structural Advantages: Why Ethereum Outperforms the Market

Compared to Bitcoin’s simple store-of-value function, Ethereum’s advantages are evident across multiple dimensions. Standard Chartered expects the “ETH/BTC exchange rate” to gradually rebound toward the 2021 high (around 0.08). This upward momentum is driven by Ethereum’s unique moat.

Three core advantages:

First is its leadership in stablecoins. Ethereum has become the primary platform for issuing stablecoins, with over half of the world’s stablecoins deployed on Ethereum, creating sustained transaction demand and network activity.

Second is its early mover advantage in tokenizing real-world assets (RWA). Traditional financial assets such as banking, insurance, and real estate are accelerating their migration to blockchain, with Ethereum being the preferred platform due to its liquidity and mature ecosystem.

Third is its leading position in the DeFi ecosystem. Ethereum’s decentralized finance protocols surpass other public chains in scale, with asset locking and trading depth leading the market.

The report specifically mentions that Bitmine, the world’s largest Ethereum reserve company, currently holds 3.4% of circulating ETH and is steadily moving toward a 5% target. This indicates ongoing institutional accumulation, reflecting strong confidence in Ethereum’s long-term value.

Fundamental Data Validation: Stablecoin Activity Creates Continuous Demand

Ethereum’s fundamental data strongly supports the above assessments. Driven by stablecoin activity (accounting for 35% to 40% of total transaction volume), recent trading volumes on Ethereum have repeatedly hit new records. Every stablecoin transaction signifies ongoing demand for block space, indirectly supporting network security and value.

Standard Chartered further states that the market size for stablecoins and RWA tokenization is expected to reach $2 trillion by 2028. This massive market growth will mainly occur on Ethereum, with traditional financial institutions significantly increasing on-chain activities. As more banks and asset management firms adopt blockchain infrastructure, Ethereum’s role as the “financial settlement layer” will be continuously reinforced.

Layer 1 Scalability Upgrades: The Engine for Market Cap Growth

Enhancing Layer 1 (mainnet) throughput remains a key variable for Ethereum’s market cap growth. Historical experience shows that improvements in network processing capacity often drive market expansion—and Ethereum is actively optimizing throughput through sharding and other technologies, leaving ample capacity for future transaction volume surges.

Favorable Regulatory Outlook: Policy Catalysts Are Being Ignited

The report concludes by emphasizing the potential positive impact of improved policy environments. The U.S. “Digital Asset Market Clarity Act” is expected to pass in the first quarter of this year. If enacted, it will provide a clear regulatory framework for the crypto market, serving as a solid foundation to support Ethereum’s long-term trajectory.

Coupled with the resilient performance of U.S. stocks and macro liquidity improvements, Bitcoin is expected to reach new highs again in the first half of the year. This upward wave will also boost the entire ecosystem, creating more growth opportunities for Ethereum. Overall, 2026 is poised to be a critical year for validating Ethereum’s structural advantages.