January 22, 2026 18:01 BTC & ETH Retailer Probability of Bullish/Bearish Today (Daily One or Two Articles)

BTC The daytime (US stock hours) bullish/bearish probability assessment (based on current sideways structure)

BTC

* Probability of breaking upward (volume increase and stabilizing above 90,600) ≈ 35%

* Probability of pulling back after a rally / testing support (around 88,600) ≈ 45%

* Probability of trading within a narrow range around 90,000 ≈ 20%

ETH

* Probability of a breakout with a rally (stabilizing above 3,070) ≈ 35%

* Probability of encountering resistance and pulling back / testing 2,930 support ≈ 45%

* Probability of weak follow-through with oscillation ≈ 20%

Conclusion: In the evening, the biggest risk is not “a drop,” but “a false breakout.” 90,000 is an extremely ambiguous level. Before choosing a direction, the most likely scenario is “pinning up and down,” leading to a whipsaw market.

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📊 Evening (US stock hours) probability judgment (considering current sideways structure)

BTC

* Breakout upward (volume increase and stabilization above 90,600) ≈ 35%

* Pullback after a rally / testing support (around 88,600) ≈ 45%

* Trading within a narrow range around 90,000 ≈ 20%

ETH

* Breakout with a rally (stabilizing above 3,070) ≈ 35%

* Encountering resistance and pulling back / testing 2,930 support ≈ 45%

* Weak follow-through with oscillation ≈ 20%

Conclusion: By evening, the greatest risk is not “a decline,” but “a fake breakout.” 90,000 is an extremely ambiguous position. Without a clear direction, the market is likely to see “whipsaw” movements.

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🎯 Most practical retail trading advice (ranked by probability)

1️⃣ The safest (current optimal solution) → Stay in the middle, do not move, wait patiently

* BTC

* Currently at 90,027, in a tricky position.

* Resistance: 90,600–90,800 (near intraday high).

* Support: 88,600 (SUPERTREND green support line).

* Strategy: Do not buy more unless below 88,600; do not chase longs blindly unless above 90,800.

* ETH

* Resistance zone: 3,070–3,100.

* Support zone: around 2,930.

* Strategy: Opening orders at 3,014 is risky due to tight stop-loss; consider observing.

👉 For most retail traders: dinner time, mainly watching the show. Current volatility is insufficient to support “mindless chasing.”

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2️⃣ Aggressive short-term → Range trading (buy low, sell high)

* BTC

* Attempt short: If a rebound to 90,500–90,700 fails to break through → go short with a small position, stop-loss at 91,000, target 89,000.

* Attempt long: If a sharp dip to 88,600–88,800 stabilizes → go long with a small position, stop-loss at 88,300, target 89,800.

* ETH

* Attempt short: Near 3,060–3,080 resistance → try short, stop-loss at 3,110, target 2,950.

* Attempt long: Rebound to 2,930–2,950 → try long, stop-loss at 2,900, target 3,020.

⚠ Note: Volatility around US stock market open and close will increase; strictly set stop-losses to prevent “whipsaw” liquidations.

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3️⃣ Trend traders → Continue waiting for right-side signals

* BTC

* Unless the daily close can stay above 91,500, the downward trend on the daily chart remains unbroken.

* The current rebound is still a “deep dip catching its breath.”

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🧠 One-sentence mental state summary

Current 90,000 points are like a crossroads; the traffic lights haven't turned on yet.

Don’t think you can predict whether the main force is pushing up or dumping. Frequently opening orders at this level usually just pays the main force’s transaction fees. Be patient, wait for it to break out of the range, either short at resistance or buy at support.