[Market Observation] BTC to USD exchange rate remains high, the logic behind institutional outlook divergence in 2026

The current cryptocurrency market is in a critical period of divergent viewpoints. The BTC to USD exchange rate hovers around $87,000, with several top institutions holding completely different forecasts for the future trend. Behind these seemingly contradictory opinions lie profound differences among investor types, time horizons, and risk preferences.

Federal Policy Variables and Industry Supporters’ Decline

Recently, the Federal Reserve’s policy signals have become a significant factor suppressing the market. Fed official Harker explicitly stated that after three rate cuts, there is no need for further adjustments in the coming months. She is more concerned about persistently high inflation than the fragility of the labor market. This signal directly lowered risk asset valuation expectations.

Meanwhile, U.S. Senator Cynthia Lummis, a long-time supporter of the crypto industry, announced she will not seek re-election, triggering widespread reactions within the industry. From a16z to Multicoin Capital, from White House crypto advisor David Sacks to several Bitcoin advocates, everyone regrets losing this key policy ally. This change implies that the policy support previously held in Congress will face uncertainty.

Divergence of Institutional Views: Not Contradiction, but Division of Labor

Regarding Bitcoin’s future trend, the market’s most focused point is the “disagreement” within Tom Lee and his Fundstrat team. On one hand, Tom Lee himself maintains a long-term bullish stance on BTC and ETH; on the other hand, Fundstrat’s digital asset strategy head Sean Farrell is preparing for potential corrections in the first half of the year as part of risk management. Does this mean the team is self-contradictory?

In fact, according to internal source Cassian, this is not contradiction but a clear division of roles. Tom Lee mainly targets large fund management institutions and investors with a BTC allocation of 1%-5%, requiring a long-term macro perspective; Sean Farrell focuses on high-allocation portfolios with 20% or more in crypto assets, emphasizing active rebalancing and risk management; technical analyst Mark Newton, based on chart structures, believes that after the October correction, a recovery is needed, but there is still room for upside by year-end. All three agree that macro risks will be highly unstable in the first half of 2026.

Sean Farrell’s baseline view is that there may be a rebound at the beginning of the year, followed by another correction in the first half, providing better opportunities for year-end positioning. This is not bearishness but risk management. The current market pricing is almost perfect, but factors like government shutdowns, trade volatility, and Fed chair changes still exert pressure.

Wall Street and Tech Giants’ Roadmap for 2026

Analysts at Citibank have provided more specific expectations. Under the baseline scenario, BTC to USD could rise to $143,000 within 12 months, about 63% higher than current levels. However, this forecast relies on positive factors such as ETF demand recovery and progress in digital asset legislation. In a bear market scenario, it could fall to $78,500; in a bull market scenario, it could surge to $189,000.

Coinbase’s institutional report sketches a broader picture. By 2026, the exchange expects privacy technologies (zero-knowledge proofs and fully homomorphic encryption), AI combined with crypto, application-specific chains, and tokenized stocks to become main development themes. Regarding institutional participation, they propose the “DAT 2.0” model, shifting from simple asset allocation to more professional trading, custody, and blockchain space acquisition. The stablecoin market will be a key track, with total market cap expected to reach $1.2 trillion by the end of 2028.

Galaxy Research offers the most aggressive long-term prediction—Bitcoin could reach $250,000 by the end of 2027. Although the market in 2026 is too chaotic for precise forecasts, the pricing in options markets also shows significant divergence in market perception of BTC.

Technological Ecosystem and Emerging Narratives

Tether’s latest moves demonstrate industry innovation directions. The company is developing a mobile crypto wallet with integrated AI features, supporting only Bitcoin, USDT, the new stablecoin USAT, and tokenized gold XAUT. This highlights the important role of stablecoins in payment scenarios.

Meanwhile, Michael Saylor continues to signal increased BTC holdings. Historically, MicroStrategy tends to disclose additional Bitcoin holdings the day after related news, and this pattern has persisted.

Token Unlock Pressure: Short-term Focus

For holders, this week’s token unlocks are noteworthy. Major projects like H, XPL, JUP will unlock large amounts this week, involving a total value exceeding $70 million. Specifically:

• H tokens unlock 105 million on December 25, valued at about $15.62 million, representing 4.79% of circulating supply
• XPL tokens unlock 88.89 million on the same day, valued at about $11.5 million, representing 4.52%
• JUP tokens unlock 53.47 million on December 28, valued at about $10.28 million, representing 1.73%
• Projects like SOON, MBG, UDS, SAHARA, ALT, VENOM, SOSO, W, IOTA are also unlocking gradually this week

These events may exert short-term selling pressure on the respective tokens, but in the long run, completion of unlocks also releases liquidity pressure.

Risks and Opportunities Coexist

Industry policies are also adjusting. TikTok’s new regulations explicitly prohibit illegal financial content packaged with concepts like blockchain and digital assets, indicating increased regulatory scrutiny over the crypto ecosystem on mainstream platforms.

Currently, BTC to USD remains at relatively high levels, but uncertainties are also significant. From policies to liquidity, from institutional participation to token releases, every aspect is shaping the 2026 landscape. The key is understanding who is speaking, what their responsibilities are, and the time horizons involved—when these puzzle pieces come together, seemingly chaotic market views can transform into clear investment logic.