Global political change paves the way for Bitcoin to break its four-year cycle

Binance co-founder Changpeng Zhao surprised analysts last week during the World Economic Forum in Davos by stating that he believes Bitcoin will break its four-year cycle pattern in 2026. The statement gained prominence especially because it marks a significant divergence from what the crypto community has expected based on established technical patterns over the years.

According to Zhao, the reason behind this unusual possibility lies in the transformation of the global regulatory environment. He highlighted that the United States and several other countries have adopted a more receptive stance toward the cryptocurrency sector, creating a scenario he describes as a “supercycle” — a movement that goes beyond what traditional quadrennial cycles typically offer.

The Bitcoin supercycle in 2026: what does it mean?

Historically, Bitcoin follows a well-defined pattern, with cycles occurring every four years, typically 14 to 18 months after halving events. The next halving is scheduled for April 2028, which would suggest a new all-time high only at the end of 2029, following the traditional rule. However, CZ argues that this time the scenario is fundamentally different.

“If you look at a five or ten-year horizon, it’s very easy to predict. We will go up,” said the exchange co-founder in response to Squawk Box host Andrew Ross Sorkin. He acknowledged the difficulty in predicting short-term movements but showed conviction about the overall direction. Bitcoin is currently trading around $77.35K, far from the $126.08K that marked its recent all-time high, leaving considerable room for potential appreciation before the year’s end.

Why CZ believes this time is different

The central focus of Zhao’s analysis is the shift in government attitudes toward digital assets. He stated that he is advising approximately a dozen nations on how to structure their own crypto regulations, a clear sign that public policies are evolving to embrace the sector rather than retreat from it.

When asked about more aggressive forecasts — such as Ark Invest CEO Cathie Wood’s prediction of Bitcoin reaching between $300K and $1.5 million by 2030 — Zhao responded confidently. “I have strong convictions that there will probably be a supercycle this year,” he said, admitting that he believes in breaking the traditional four-year cycle given the favorable macro environment.

The regulatory shift is not just symbolic. Zhao spent significant time discussing with policymakers how to regulate stablecoins, asset tokenization, and crypto infrastructure. This engagement suggests that governments are seeking to integrate digital assets into their economies, not ban them.

Beyond predictions: CZ’s projects in the pro-crypto era

Beyond Bitcoin forecasts, Zhao also revealed that he is deeply involved in projects reflecting his vision for the crypto industry. He is developing Giggle Academy, a free educational platform aimed at spreading knowledge about cryptocurrencies. Simultaneously, he works with Easy Labs, an investment team focused on identifying opportunities in the sector.

Additionally, CZ maintains an active role as a mentor to various founders within the BNB Chain ecosystem. He emphasized that although he is involved in investments, his participation is minor, and his main focus is strategic guidance and direct mentorship. “I just mentor them,” he explained, suggesting a more talent development-focused approach rather than capturing returns.

The 2028 halving and the new paradigm

The upcoming halving in April 2028 marks an important inflection point. Traditionally, this event would reduce the number of new Bitcoins generated and create upward pressure about 14 to 18 months later. However, if the pro-crypto scenario Zhao describes materializes, Bitcoin could reach new heights well before this technical milestone, completely redefining what was understood as the predictable cycle of the world’s leading cryptocurrency.