BTC / Gold Extreme Value Phase: The possibility that the bearish market is coming to an end

What market data reveals is that the BTC/gold pair is approaching a very interesting turning point. According to data from multiple analysis agencies, the bearish market for BTC against gold typically follows a cycle of about 13 to 14 months, and four such cycles have already been confirmed. If this cycle continues to follow the same pattern, the end is approaching.

Exponential Rise and Formation of Extremes in the Gold Market

Notably, there is a change in the relative positioning of gold. The BTC/gold ratio reaching 2015 levels highlights that Bitcoin is extremely undervalued compared to gold as a safe haven asset. This is not just a matter of price but indicates that market psychology is shifting into risk-avoidance mode.

In fact, gold has reached the $5,000 level against the US dollar. This rapid increase began in fall 2023, and on the long-term chart since July 2016, it has already recorded a gain of over +270%. The upward trend continues on a monthly chart, but an important phase is about to unfold.

Appearance of Extreme Value Signals on Multiple Timeframes

From a technical analysis perspective, several warning signals are observed. The yearly chart shows a series of formations suggesting potential highs. In particular, the last marked formation occurred between April and June 2024, and since then, growth has accelerated without signs of correction, continuing an abnormal pattern.

On a 6-month chart, a strong reversal signal has appeared for the first time. This is the first of three possible scenarios, and there are still five months before this formation completes. However, looking ahead to 2026, the upward trend in gold may still continue.

An important indicator to watch is whether a downtrend forms on a 12-hour or longer timeframe. Since November 10 of last year, gold has not confirmed a sustained downtrend. Whether this phase reverses will be key to future market movements.

Limits of Infinite Growth and the Necessity of Correction

Returning to fundamental market principles, some key laws apply. Infinite growth does not exist, and the more vertical the price movement, the closer it is to ending. Exponential growth always has characteristics, and during correction phases, sharp and unpredictable declines tend to occur.

Currently, BTC is trading around $71,340, and ETH around $2,120, with both recording 5-6% declines over 24 hours. This situation will serve as an important indicator of how much adjustment the market needs.

Next Liquidity Flows and Market Turning Point

The most critical question is where this enormous liquidity will flow. Logically, inflows are expected into the stock market and then into top-tier cryptocurrencies, especially BTC and ETH.

Gold and silver saw a value increase of $1.8 trillion (equivalent to the total market cap of BTC) in just one day. This suggests that even small price increases require enormous financial effort to push these assets higher. Conversely, if liquidity begins to flow in the opposite direction, it could generate downward pressure of a similar scale.

The extreme value phase indicated by the BTC/gold pair suggests that a market turning point is within sight. Investors must pay close attention to technical warning signals and liquidity trends.