#VELO - Fake-Out or Real Breakdown?

Rising Wedges in general and In crypto markets specifically:
▫️~65%–75% of rising wedges break to the downside
▫️~25%–35% end as fake breakdowns / bear traps
However, those odds shift when:
▫️The wedge forms after a deep drawdown
▫️Price is near HTF support
▫️Sell-side liquidity is obvious
▫️A HTF Fair Value Gap sits above
▫️In those conditions, probabilities move closer to 50/50. 💡
Key rule:
▫️Acceptance below the white support confirms the breakdown.
▫️Fast sweep + Strong reclaim and re-enters the rising wedge confirms the trap.
💡 Pattern bias doesn’t equal outcome, structure does:
For the full breakdown using FVG, BMSB, and what comes next, click the link below to read the complete post 👇