The truth behind XRP price rebound: Is it a trend reversal or a collective exit by holders?

When XRP’s price rebounded strongly by 30% from the lows in early February, market sentiment was once high, but on-chain data painted a very different picture: over 90% of short-term holders sold their positions during the rebound.

A key on-chain indicator—SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio)—remained below 1 for over ten days, indicating that even during the price recovery, most transactions were still at a loss.

More concerning is that the share of XRP held by mid-term investors with holding periods of 1 to 3 months decreased from approximately 14.48% in mid-January to recent levels of 9.48%, a decline of about 35%.

Market Performance

According to Gate data, as of February 10, 2026, XRP’s price is $1.42. In the past 24 hours, it has slightly increased by +0.85%, with a trading volume of $144.97 million.

Despite this, the asset still faces significant short-term pressure. The current price is approaching a strong resistance zone between $1.44 and $1.54.

From a longer-term perspective, XRP’s price remains within a broad correction range. Compared to last year, it has decreased by -40.78%, and compared to one month ago, down by -32.20%.

On-Chain Data Insights

To understand the true story behind the price rebound, we must go beyond charts and delve into blockchain data itself. A series of on-chain metrics point to a conclusion: recent gains are more being used by holders as an exit opportunity rather than the start of a new rally.

The most direct signal comes from the SOPR. This indicator has remained below 1, meaning most tokens moved on-chain are being sold at a loss. This reveals an unusual phenomenon: typically, after a significant rebound, short-term traders are in profit, pushing SOPR above 1. But in XRP’s case, profit-taking has not occurred; loss-selling has persisted during the price recovery. This indicates many holders are eager to exit underwater positions.

SOPR Under 1: Glassnode

Changes in holder structure make it clearer who is selling. Data shows the most dramatic shifts are among 24-hour holders.

On February 6, this group controlled about 1% of circulating XRP supply, but within days, this share plummeted to 0.09%, a decline of over 90%. These are typically highly sensitive traders who enter during market volatility and quickly exit during rebounds. Selling activity is not limited to this group. Those who bought heavily near $2.07 in January are also continuously reducing their holdings over the past months.

Did speculators buy the top?: Glassnode

Mid-term XRP holders selling: Glassnode

Technical Structure and Key Levels

From a technical analysis perspective, XRP’s chart shows a potential rebound pattern coexisting with strong resistance. On the 12-hour chart, XRP forms a “descending wedge” pattern. Theoretically, if it can break above the upper trendline convincingly, there could be more than 50% upside.

Another early positive signal is divergence in momentum indicators. From late January to early February, XRP made lower lows, but the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which measures buying and selling pressure, formed higher lows.

However, all these technical bullish signals face a real obstacle: a substantial cost basis resistance zone. Heatmap data shows that between $1.42 and $1.44, over 660 million XRP have been accumulated, forming a strong supply (sell) zone.

Long-Term Fundamentals and Price Forecast

Despite weak short-term market sentiment and on-chain activity, XRP’s long-term fundamentals are strengthening. This is mainly due to improved regulatory environment and expanded institutional adoption pathways.

A milestone event was Ripple reaching a settlement with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in 2025. This decision removed the largest regulatory cloud over XRP for years. Regulatory clarity has opened the door for broader institutional adoption. In November 2025, multiple XRP spot ETFs were approved in the U.S., including products issued by top global asset managers like Franklin Templeton.

On the enterprise application front, Ripple’s ambitions are grand. CEO Brad Garlinghouse has predicted that XRP’s blockchain could capture 14% of the global cross-border payments currently handled by SWIFT within five years.

If even part of this vision materializes, it could mean trillions of dollars in payment flows, potentially creating enormous demand for XRP.

Considering technical, on-chain, regulatory, and institutional factors, market expectations for XRP’s future vary. Based on Gate’s forecast data, by 2031, the average price could reach $2.06, representing about +45% potential upside from current levels.

The table below summarizes annual price prediction ranges from 2026 to 2031:

Within the $1.42–$1.44 range, a “cost wall” formed by over 660 million XRP stands silently. Every time the price hits this zone, it triggers a wave of selling.

Key Sell Zone: Glassnode

Market Outlook

In the short term, the divergence between market sentiment and on-chain data creates a major contradiction for XRP’s price. The optimistic technical pattern is at odds with weak holder confidence.

The $1.44–$1.54 zone is a critical threshold for short-term direction. A successful breakout accompanied by increased volume and a strengthening SOPR could reverse the recent downtrend and trigger a sustained rebound. Conversely, if the price faces resistance again in this zone and falls back, it could retest recent lows around $1.23 or even $1.12.

XRP Price Analysis: TradingView

From a long-term perspective, XRP’s narrative is shifting from “legal survival” to “institutional integration.” Clearing regulatory hurdles and the emergence of compliant financial products like ETFs lay a new foundation. However, realizing long-term potential depends on time and the actual progress of Ripple’s enterprise applications. For investors, maintaining patience amid volatility and closely monitoring on-chain supply-demand dynamics and key technical breakthroughs may be the most rational approach to navigating the current complex environment.

The crypto market is always changing, but one principle remains unchanged: prices will fluctuate, but true value ultimately comes from the ability to solve real-world problems.