Geopolitics, U.S. stock market fluctuations, and employment data: The three major macro drivers of the 2026 crypto market

The White House preemptively released non-farm payroll data signals, with U.S. corporate layoffs reaching a 17-year high, Bitcoin repeatedly battling at the $68,000 key level, and every fluctuation in the crypto market tugging at the nerves of global capital.

Currently, the macroeconomic landscape worldwide is undergoing profound restructuring. The White House, ahead of the non-farm data release, unusually issued signals in an attempt to stabilize market sentiment; U.S. corporate layoffs have quietly risen to a 17-year high; and the nomination of former Fed official Waller adds uncertainty to future monetary policy. These events function like precisely coordinated gears, with their movements directly transmitting to the crypto markets: Bitcoin repeatedly fights at the $69,000 level, the market fear and greed index plunges into “extreme fear,” and institutional capital flows show a short-term defensive stance.

Market participants are no longer facing a single-asset issue but a core puzzle: how traditional macroeconomic signals—U.S. stock performance, employment data, geopolitical risks—interact in complex ways, either in the same or opposite directions, reshaping the price trajectories of Bitcoin and Ethereum. This article aims to cut through market noise by analyzing the latest macro policy trends, on-chain fund data, and institutional holdings changes to identify the key link between the macro world and the crypto market.

How Macro Events Transmit to the Crypto Market

In early February 2026, former Fed official and hawkish monetary policy advocate Kevin Waller was nominated as the next Federal Reserve Chair, triggering intense turbulence in global financial markets, dubbed the “Waller Effect.”

Meanwhile, U.S. employment data sent mixed signals. On one hand, official monthly employment reports still depict a resilient labor market; on the other hand, private sector reports serve as early warning signals.

The Challenger, Gray & Christmas employment report shows U.S. companies announced plans to lay off 108,435 workers in January, a 205% month-over-month increase, reaching a 17-year high. This wave of layoffs starkly contrasts with relatively steady official employment data, hinting at potential cracks in the labor market.

When market risk appetite declines and liquidity tightens, all risk asset classes tend to fall in unison, creating a “disparate sell-off” scenario.

On-Chain Data Reveals True Market Trends

Market participants are withdrawing, leading to a shrinking buyer base and reduced liquidity. The Coinbase Premium Gap indicator, measuring institutional demand relative to retail, has fallen to its lowest level in over a year, suggesting institutional investors may be selling Bitcoin. This selling pressure is not only from individual investors; spot Bitcoin ETFs are also becoming net sellers, having sold 10,600 BTC in 2026 alone, contrasting sharply with net buying during the same period in 2025.

On-chain data further shows Bitcoin reserves on exchanges are increasing, from 2.718 million BTC on January 19 to 2.752 million BTC. This growth often signals mounting selling pressure, as more Bitcoin being deposited on exchanges typically indicates holders preparing to sell.

ETH/BTC Exchange Rate: A Market Rotation Indicator

In a market environment where both Bitcoin and Ethereum are declining, a subtle shift is occurring. Technical analyst Jonathan Carter points out that Ethereum may be approaching a critical breakout point against Bitcoin, evidenced by a long-term compression pattern on the two-week candlestick chart.

According to technical analysis, if Ethereum can break out of the descending triangle, it could enter a sustained phase of outperforming Bitcoin. Potential upside targets include 0.040, 0.060, and possibly reaching the 2017 peak of 0.154. This relative strength could be achieved mainly through two mechanisms: either Ethereum attracting more capital inflow than Bitcoin, or during market corrections, Bitcoin falling more than Ethereum.

The former is likely to translate into a continued rotation into Ethereum and broader altcoins, laying the groundwork for altcoin season. Regardless of the scenario, Bitcoin’s dominant position may significantly diminish.

Investor Strategies and Market Outlook

In a complex and volatile environment, investors need to adjust strategies to align with new macro realities. This entails a greater focus on fundamentals, risk management, and liquidity reserves. Crypto assets may evolve into “non-sovereign digital collateral” rather than traditional safe-haven assets, requiring investors to rebuild their analytical frameworks.

When leverage is forced to unwind, market participants tend to sell the most liquid instruments. Major liquid assets naturally become primary targets, including stock indices, gold, silver, and leading tokens in the crypto market. U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen testified before the House Financial Services Committee, stating that she considers the Federal Reserve an independent agency, but the President has the authority to intervene in its decisions.

As of February 10, data from Gate.io shows Bitcoin’s current price at $68,997.1, down 1.80% in the past 24 hours. Bitcoin’s market cap is $1.41 trillion, with a market share of 56.14%. Ethereum’s price is $2,013.48, down 2.29% over the same period. Its market cap stands at $252.82 billion, with a 10.04% market share. Given the macro environment, investors should pay attention to key technical levels. For Bitcoin, around $74,000 is seen as a critical support; if broken, the price could decline toward $69,000 or even $58,000. Despite recent volatility, some analysts still view current levels as potential long-term entry zones.