Bitcoin ETF drops below $100 billion; why does Bernstein dare to predict that BTC will rise to $150,000 by the end of the year?

As of February 10th, according to the latest market data from Gate, the price of Bitcoin is currently around $69,000, continuing the recent downward trend. The total assets of US Bitcoin spot ETFs have fallen below the psychological threshold of $100 billion, currently standing at only $99.16 billion.

BlackRock’s IBIT holds the largest position with 765,200 BTC, Fidelity’s FBTC holds 198,400 BTC, while the former leader Grayscale’s GBTC holds 159,600 BTC.

BTC ETF Market Data

Current market sentiment is clearly suppressed. Over the past week, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies worldwide has fallen from a high of $3.11 trillion to $2.64 trillion.

Market volatility has been intense, with approximately $125 million in liquidations in the past 24 hours alone, dominated by long positions.

According to Gate’s BTC/USDT liquidation map analysis, if Bitcoin’s price drops to around $67,948, the total liquidation of long positions could exceed $251 million; conversely, if the price rises to about $71,548, short liquidations could amount to approximately $119 million.

Institutional Activity

Despite the overall market downturn, institutional activity has not ceased. MicroStrategy increased its Bitcoin holdings by 1,142 BTC last week, bringing its total to 714,644 BTC.

Meanwhile, market maker Jump Trading is providing liquidity to prediction market platforms in exchange for small equity stakes in Kalshi Inc. and Polymarket, indicating that traditional financial institutions are still seeking new ways to enter the crypto space.

The agreement between Jump and Polymarket is particularly noteworthy, as their shareholding will increase over time based on trading volume provided in the U.S. market. This innovative cooperation model could bring new liquidity solutions to the industry.

Bernstein’s Core Arguments

Amid a generally pessimistic market atmosphere, research and brokerage firm Bernstein has released an unusually optimistic report, claiming that the current correction is the “weakest bear market scenario” in Bitcoin history.

Led by analyst Gautam Chhugani, the report explicitly states that “recent price weakness reflects a confidence crisis, not any fundamental flaw in the system.”

Bernstein’s team points out that, unlike traditional bear markets, this cycle has not seen major bankruptcies, hidden leverage, or systemic collapse.

On the contrary, synergistic effects among institutions are strengthening, including favorable political environments, adoption of spot Bitcoin ETFs, increased corporate capital allocation, and ongoing participation by large asset managers.

Countering Mainstream Concerns

Addressing widespread concerns about Bitcoin, Bernstein’s report counters each point. Regarding Bitcoin’s underperformance compared to gold, the analysis suggests Bitcoin remains a liquidity-sensitive risk asset rather than a mature safe haven.

The report notes that a tightening financial environment and high interest rates are concentrating returns in a few asset classes, such as precious metals and AI-related stocks.

On the concern that artificial intelligence could render Bitcoin irrelevant, Bernstein offers a different perspective. They believe blockchain and programmable wallets are well-suited for the emerging “agentification” digital environment, where autonomous software agents require globalized, machine-readable financial infrastructure.

The threat of quantum computing is also moderately assessed. The report acknowledges potential future cryptographic threats but emphasizes that Bitcoin is not the only domain at risk.

Unique Perspective Analysis

Bernstein pays particular attention to the structural risks of corporate Bitcoin holdings. The report suggests that major Bitcoin holders like MicroStrategy have built debt structures, such as long-term preferred shares, capable of withstanding prolonged declines.

Analysis indicates that unless Bitcoin drops to $8,000 and remains there for five years, these companies’ balance sheets are unlikely to require restructuring. Such extreme scenarios seem highly improbable at present.

Regarding concerns about miners selling off, the report states that miners have mitigated pressure through diversified business models, especially by reallocating electricity assets to meet AI data center demands.

Capital Flows and Market Divergence

Although total assets of Bitcoin ETFs have fallen below $100 billion, the flow of funds presents a complex picture. On Tuesday, spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced net outflows of $272 million.

This outflow is related to Bitcoin prices currently being below the ETF’s average cost basis of $84,000. However, market observers believe this is unlikely to trigger a large-scale further sell-off of ETFs.

ETF analyst Nate Geraci commented, “I guess most spot Bitcoin ETF assets will remain unchanged regardless.”

Institutional liquidity provider B2C2 CEO Thomas Restout also noted that institutional ETF investors generally have stronger resilience. However, he hinted that institutional funds might be shifting toward on-chain trading.

Outlook and Predictions

Bernstein’s core forecast is that, as liquidity conditions improve, Bitcoin will regain upward momentum and reach $150,000 by the end of 2026.

Analysts believe that Bitcoin’s ETF infrastructure and corporate financing channels are already prepared for future liquidity-driven capital inflows.

Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley offers a different perspective, stating that Bitcoin falling below $70,000 is interpreted differently by market participants: long-term holders are becoming cautious, while institutional investors see it as an opportunity to re-enter.

Short-term technical analysis shows mixed signals. Some independent analysts believe technical indicators still point to further declines, with some suggesting that the “real bottom” may only be confirmed if Bitcoin drops below $50,000.

Summary

As the market shifts, institutional investors are eyeing the next cycle. When Bitcoin hovered around $69,000 on February 10th, Gate exchange data showed a net inflow of $10 million into spot BTC in the past 24 hours.

Last week, MicroStrategy added 1,142 BTC at an average price of approximately $78,815, reaffirming its long-term strategy. Meanwhile, BlackRock’s IBIT holding of 765,200 BTC remains steady, serving as one of the key stabilizing anchors in the market.

Since the launch of Bitcoin spot ETFs in January 2024, cumulative net inflows have reached 689,180 BTC, valued at $55 billion. Behind these figures is the slow but steady acceptance of Bitcoin as an asset class within the traditional financial world.