Bitcoin Key Signal: Rarely Falls Below the 100-Week Moving Average, What Does History Indicate About Market Reversals?

On February 10, 2026, Bitcoin’s price hovered within a critical range of $68,000 to $70,000, undergoing its most severe test since falling back from the all-time high of $126,000 in October last year.

A more significant technical signal is that Bitcoin has remained below the 100-week Simple Moving Average (100-week SMA) for 13 consecutive days. This trend line, regarded by technical analysts as a long-term “safety net,” is under immense pressure.

Key Support Level Breached

For technical analysts, the 100-week moving average is not just a trend line but an important watershed for assessing long-term market sentiment. This moving average reflects the average cost basis over approximately two years and is widely viewed as a key indicator for identifying major trend reversals.

Market data shows that Bitcoin has closed below the 100-week SMA for the third consecutive week. As of February 10, 2026, the price has remained below this long-term trend line for 13 days.

This duration exceeds many short-term correction periods, prompting the market to reassess the strength of the long-term trend.

Historical Comparison Analysis

Historical data indicates that when Bitcoin breaks below a long-term trend line, the market often experiences a prolonged correction. Coin Bureau CEO Nic notes that, based on historical experience, BTC tends to stay below the long-term trend line for an average of 267 days after breaching it.

The shortest correction period occurred during the COVID-19 pandemic, lasting only 34 days. The current 13-day duration remains near historical lows, but whether the market can rebound quickly as it did during the pandemic remains uncertain.

Historically, the market is more likely to stay at low levels for an extended period. A rapid rebound is possible, but the longer Bitcoin remains at low levels, the less likely such a rebound becomes.

Technical Structure Analysis

Latest analysis from Gate indicates that as of February 10, 2026, Bitcoin’s price was approximately $69,000, down about 46% from its all-time high of $126,000 in October last year.

Several key indicators are signaling bearish momentum. Bitcoin has broken below the 365-day moving average for the first time since March 2022.

The main technical indicators as of February 10, 2026, are:

The divergence between Bitcoin and gold also continues to widen. Over the past year, gold has surged 68%, while Bitcoin has declined nearly 30%. This stark contrast further weakens Bitcoin’s narrative as “digital gold.”

Market Sentiment and Capital Flows

The cryptocurrency market is in an extreme fear state. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has dropped to 14, indicating “Extreme Fear,” the lowest since the FTX collapse in 2022.

Another key factor amplifying volatility is the ongoing forced liquidations in the crypto market. According to Coinglass data, over $2 billion in long and short positions have been liquidated in this cycle. On February 5 alone, $2.58 billion in leveraged positions were liquidated, with 93% being long positions.

CryptoQuant’s latest report indicates that institutional demand has sharply reversed. While the US Bitcoin spot ETF was still net buying about 46,000 BTC in the same period in 2025, by 2026, it has shifted to net selling.

From November 2025 to January 2026, ETF outflows totaled approximately $6.2 billion, the longest continuous outflow since these products launched.

Support and Resistance Levels

In the context of Bitcoin’s ongoing correction, identifying key support and resistance levels is crucial for traders. The current key price levels are:

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin’s daily chart remains bearish. Analysts suggest that only a move back above $81,000 could signal a trend reversal.

Elliott Wave analysis indicates that the correction wave C could be similar in magnitude to wave A, potentially extending down to the $52,000–$53,000 range, close to the support established in September 2024.

Macro Environment and Future Outlook

On the macro front, the market is reassessing Bitcoin’s role as a risk asset. With institutional withdrawals, cooling sentiment, and technical weakness, Bitcoin stands at a critical turning point.

Several analysts have expressed differing views:

• Canary Capital suggests the bear market could persist into Q4, with stabilization around $50,000–$60,000, near the 200-week MA.
• Polymarket traders estimate a 54% chance that Bitcoin will reach $75,000 by the end of February.
• Standard Chartered remains long-term bullish, maintaining a year-end target of $150,000.

Bitcoin’s recent price action has raised doubts about its “digital gold” narrative. Marion Laboure, an analyst at Deutsche Bank, notes that persistent selling pressure indicates traditional investors are losing interest, and overall market sentiment toward cryptocurrencies is turning more pessimistic.

Summary

Bitcoin faces challenges not only from price corrections but also from a fundamental reevaluation of its core narrative. As gold prices continue to rise, and Bitcoin remains highly correlated with tech stocks and other risk assets, its “digital gold” status is being questioned.

Market watchers are closely monitoring two key factors: whether macroeconomic data from the U.S. (especially the February 13 CPI release) can support risk assets, and whether institutional funds will re-enter Bitcoin ETF products.

In any case, investors should recognize that Bitcoin’s 13-day streak below the 100-week MA is just a prelude to a potential market turning point. The true determinant of its future trajectory will be the institutions and individual holders who are re-evaluating Bitcoin’s intrinsic value.