Monero (XMR) price drops 65% in an in-depth analysis: why is $150 a key risk threshold?

Monero’s price has fallen over 65% from its all-time high of $799 in mid-January, currently trading around $423K. This decline significantly exceeds the average correction level of the cryptocurrency market.

Technical charts indicate that Monero is forming a bear flag pattern, which is typically seen as a short-term pause within a downtrend rather than a trend reversal. The short-term moving averages (such as the 20-day EMA) are gradually converging with the long-term moving averages (like the 200-day EMA), forming a potential bearish crossover signal.

Exchange data shows that recently, Monero shifted from a net outflow of $7.1 million to a net inflow of $768,000, suggesting investors are taking advantage of the rebound to reduce their positions. This change in capital flow usually indicates increased market supply and insufficient demand, further limiting upward price movement.

Price Retracement

Monero’s price action is concerning. According to the latest data, XMR has dropped over 65% from its mid-January high of $799, now trading around $423K. This dramatic decline far exceeds the pullback seen in most mainstream cryptocurrencies during the same period, even surpassing many high-risk altcoins.

From a time perspective, Monero’s decline has not been abrupt. Over the past month, XMR has fallen nearly 31%, and over a longer 14-day period, the decline reaches 30.65%.

Market data shows that the 24-hour trading range is between $368.69 and $411.49. This narrow fluctuation indicates market participants are hesitant, lacking clear directional confidence.

Chart Patterns

Technical charts tell the story of Monero’s ongoing bear market. The daily chart clearly shows a typical bear flag pattern forming—characterized by a sharp decline followed by a narrow consolidation. The flagpole is formed by the steep drop from $799 to $276, while recent consolidation around $330 creates the flag’s surface.

Moving average analysis further confirms this bearish outlook. Currently, the 50-day EMA is gradually approaching the 100-day EMA, and the 20-day EMA is also converging toward the 200-day EMA. These technical signals suggest that short-term downside momentum has not yet exhausted, and prices may continue to decline. Notably, if Monero breaks below the current consolidation zone, it could trigger a new wave of decline.

XMR Price Structure Bearish: TradingView

Capital Flows

Monero exchange fund flows reveal the true intentions of market participants. Data shows that in the week ending February 2, there was approximately $7.1 million in net outflows, indicating buyers entered after the sharp price drop. However, this buying support was not sustained.

By the week ending February 9, the flow reversed significantly, with net inflows reaching about $768,000. This suggests more XMR is flowing back into exchanges from wallets, indicating investors are reducing their positions during the rebound.

Positive Flows: Coinglass

This shift in capital flow has important market implications. When net outflows turn into net inflows, it generally means market participants are moving crypto assets onto exchanges in preparation to sell rather than holding long-term. Increased supply coupled with weak demand creates a bearish environment.

Derivatives Market Alerts

Data from the derivatives market further confirms Monero’s predicament. Open interest has sharply declined from about $279 million in mid-January to approximately $110 million as of February 10, a drop of over 60%. The rapid decrease in open interest indicates leverage is exiting the market, with traders reducing risk exposure rather than preparing for a strong rebound.

Open Interest Reset: Coinglass

Meanwhile, funding rates remain slightly positive, suggesting most remaining traders still hold bullish positions. However, the lack of open interest backing these rates indicates that this bullish sentiment is not supported by substantial capital. This structure limits the potential for short squeeze-driven rebounds, which are often catalysts for reversals in bear markets. Without significant short positions, upward price movement lacks the necessary momentum.

XMR Weighted Funding Rate: Coinglass

Key Support Levels

Facing technical and capital flow pressures, the key support levels for Monero become critical. The first major support is around $314, aligning with recent lows and the lower boundary of the bear flag pattern. If this level fails, downside potential opens further.

Fibonacci retracement analysis points to the next major demand zone near $150. A drop from current levels to $150 would represent over 50% additional decline, comparable to the first phase of Monero’s current downtrend.

Monero Price Analysis: TradingView

Beyond the $150 level, deeper support zones include $114 and $88. However, $150’s psychological and technical significance makes it the most critical downside target.

Market Sentiment

The overall performance of the privacy coin sector directly influences Monero’s market sentiment. As global regulators tighten scrutiny on cryptocurrencies, privacy coins face unique challenges and opportunities.

Monero’s privacy features could be a double-edged sword—attracting users with specific needs but also drawing regulatory pressure. Recently, competitors like Zcash have faced governance issues, shifting some attention toward Monero. However, this capital movement has not translated into sustained price gains for Monero, reflecting broader market concerns about privacy coins outweighing individual project advantages.

Technical upgrades and network security remain fundamental to Monero. The recent Fluorine Fermi hard fork enhanced network security, but these improvements have not yet translated into price support in the short term.

Risk Matrix

Monero’s current risk profile is multi-layered. On the technical side, the risk of a breakdown of the bear flag pattern persists; on the capital side, exchange net inflows indicate selling pressure; on the derivatives side, declining open interest signals waning confidence. However, some buffers remain. Monero’s core privacy technology still offers an advantage. Even under regulatory pressure, demand for private transactions is unlikely to vanish entirely, providing a long-term foundation.

Traders should pay attention not only to price levels but also to shifts in market structure. A break above $350 and $532 resistance levels could weaken the bearish pattern, but given current conditions, such a breakout seems unlikely, and downside risks dominate.

According to Gate data, as of February 10, 2026, Monero trades around $423K with a 24-hour volume of approximately $88 million and a market cap of $615 million. CoinGlass data shows that open interest in Monero futures has fallen over 60% from about $279 million in mid-January to roughly $110 million, with leverage exiting the market. Exchange fund flows have also reversed sharply from a net outflow of $7.1 million to a net inflow of $768,000.

When capital flows diverge from price trends, technical analysts remain cautious, noting that the $150 zone could become the next critical support. If this level fails, Monero’s price could face a new deep correction.