Funding rate and sentiment indicators reveal a generally bearish outlook. Where are the resistance levels for the crypto market rebound?

As of February 10th, Bitcoin is currently priced at $68,800, continuing the downward trend from the past week. According to Coinglass data, the current funding rate for Bitcoin perpetual contracts has turned negative, indicating that shorts are paying longs to maintain their positions, and overall market sentiment is clearly leaning bearish.

The Crypto Fear and Greed Index dropped to 6 last weekend, marking the lowest level since the FTX crisis in 2022. Data shows that funding rates on several major trading platforms for BTC and ETH are below the 0.005% bearish threshold, and market sentiment toward altcoins SOL and XRP is even more bearish than Bitcoin itself.

Market Overview: Major Token Prices and Changes

As of February 10th, the total crypto market capitalization is approximately $2.36 trillion, down 2.6% in the past 24 hours. Data indicates that among the top 100 cryptocurrencies, nearly 80 have declined more than 1% in the past day.

Bitcoin is trading around $68,800, down about 45% from its all-time high of $126,198 set in October last year. Over the past week, Bitcoin has fallen 11%, and year-to-date, it has declined 20.6%.

Ethereum’s price has dropped to around $2,059, a decline of approximately 58% from its all-time high of $4,953. Other major tokens are also weak: SOL trades at about $85, down 71% from its high; XRP trades at roughly $1.43, down 63% from its peak.

Sentiment Indicators: Key Signals from Funding Rates

Crypto market sentiment has entered the “extreme fear” zone. According to the Fear and Greed Index developed by CoinMarketCap, the current reading is only 9, just slightly above the 5-year low of 5 recorded last Friday. This level is comparable to the market sentiment during the 2022 FTX collapse.

Funding rate data further confirms the bearish mood. When funding rates are above 0.01%, it indicates a generally bullish market; when below 0.005%, it signals a predominantly bearish market.

Currently, funding rates for BTC and ETH on multiple platforms have turned negative, suggesting traders are preparing for downside risk or requiring compensation to hold long positions.

Data shows that bearish sentiment toward SOL and XRP is even stronger than for Bitcoin. This divergence indicates investors are reducing exposure to high-risk assets and seeking safer alternatives.

Major Token Performance: Market Logic in Divergence

Bitcoin’s rebound faces significant resistance near $71,000. Analysts interpret this rally as a typical technical bear market bounce rather than the start of a new upward trend.

Key resistance is concentrated around the $71,000 level, which is seen as a critical threshold for determining whether the market can truly rebound.

Ethereum is under considerable selling pressure. A well-known investor, Yi Lihua, was forced to liquidate over 630,000 ETH in just six days, incurring losses exceeding $700 million, making him one of the most prominent “whales” during this crash.

This large-scale liquidation has further fueled market panic.

Solana and XRP are performing particularly weakly, with bearish sentiment even surpassing that of Bitcoin. This reflects a market pattern where, during risk aversion, funds tend to flow out of volatile altcoins into relatively stable Bitcoin, creating a “flight to safety” effect.

Technical and Funding Aspects: Dual Pressures on Key Indicators

Technical analysis shows Bitcoin faces a significant resistance at $71,000. Analysts warn that large sell-side supply, fragile market sentiment, and thin liquidity could lead to a retest of the critical long-term support around $60,000.

Derivatives market data is also concerning. The open interest in Bitcoin perpetual contracts has been declining steadily since October last year, currently about 51% below its peak.

Market liquidity has noticeably shrunk. Since late 2025, total trading volume on major centralized exchanges has decreased by about 30%, with monthly spot trading volume dropping from roughly $1 trillion to around $700 billion.

This decline in liquidity means smaller sell-offs can trigger disproportionate price swings, creating a vicious cycle of “price drops → forced liquidations → further declines.”

Implied volatility in the options market has fallen from about 83% last Thursday to roughly 60% now, indicating a market expectation of reduced short-term price swings.

However, positioning remains defensive, showing investors still demand downside protection.

Macro Environment and Market Structure: Deeper Challenges

Macroeconomic uncertainties continue to impact the crypto market. When silver and gold prices suddenly plunged, their volatility accelerated declines in assets like Bitcoin.

Expectations around Federal Reserve policies have also increased pressure. News of hawkish nominees for Fed Chair has led markets to anticipate sustained high interest rates to curb inflation, putting risk assets under pressure.

Traditional fund outflows have worsened the situation. Data shows that US Bitcoin ETFs experienced significant outflows at the end of January amid increased volatility, with net outflows of $817 million on January 29 and $509 million on January 30.

A macro hedge fund manager in Singapore noted, “When markets are volatile, these traditional funds tend to reduce holdings in more volatile Bitcoin assets first.”

This correction differs fundamentally from previous bull markets. Analysts believe this rally was driven more by narratives—such as pro-crypto policies under Trump and MicroStrategy’s treasury strategy—rather than genuine technological innovation.

This reliance on macro expectations and sentiment-driven narratives makes the market particularly vulnerable when liquidity dries up.

Summary

Bitcoin perpetual contract funding rates have turned fully negative, the market sentiment index has fallen to its lowest since 2022, and liquidity on major trading platforms has shrunk by nearly one-third from last year’s peak.

As Bitcoin repeatedly tests the critical resistance at $71,000, and mainstream altcoins like ETH, SOL exhibit even more bearish sentiment than Bitcoin itself, the confidence pillars of the entire crypto market are under severe strain.

A crypto entrepreneur summed up the current situation aptly: “Without innovation, only narratives, it’s hard to sustain a bull market.”