Market confidence in prediction wavers: Less than 50% chance Bitcoin will return to $75,000 in February

Recent market forecast data shows that the probability of Bitcoin returning to $75,000 in February has fallen below 50%. This stands in stark contrast to early February, when Bitcoin rebounded above $70,000, and the probability of this forecast on Polymarket briefly rose to 64%.

As of February 11, according to the latest market data from Gate, BTC is priced at $66,900, down 3% over the past 24 hours. Currently, market pricing indicates this probability is only 47%. Behind this turning point is a complex picture involving a strengthening dollar, outflows of institutional funds, and traditional bear market signals.

When the widely anticipated “February rebound” encounters resistance, investors are beginning to reassess Bitcoin’s short-term outlook.

Shift in Forecast

Market sentiment indicators are sending conflicting signals. Data from February 8 showed that as Bitcoin’s price reclaimed above $70,000, the forecast market once optimistically assigned a 64% chance of an increase.

However, this optimism did not last, and the latest market pricing has reduced this probability to 47%. This marks a key psychological threshold—market confidence in a short-term rally has fallen below half.

Meanwhile, expectations for the long-term trend are more pessimistic. Forecast data indicates a 72% chance that Bitcoin will fall to $55,000 by the end of 2026.

This divergence between short-term and long-term expectations reflects investors’ internal contradictions: they hope for a technical rebound but remain cautious about the overall trend.

Macro Pressures

Bitcoin is currently facing one of the most complex macro environments in recent years. The strong rebound of the US dollar index has directly suppressed the performance of dollar-denominated assets.

The US dollar index has risen 1.5% over two days to reach 97.60, marking the best two-day gain in nine months. This strength increases the opportunity cost of holding assets like Bitcoin that are not dollar-based.

At the same time, several analysts have begun using the term “bear market.” Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, believes Bitcoin may be in a bear market that could extend into the third quarter of 2026.

Latest surveys from Coinbase Institutional and Glassnode show that 26% of institutions now describe the market as in a bear phase, a significant increase from 2% in previous surveys.

The traditional definition of a bear market is a price decline of more than 20% from recent highs. Since Bitcoin’s peak of over $126,000 in October 2025, it has fallen approximately 41%, well beyond this threshold.

Market Structure

Structural issues in the current Bitcoin market cannot be ignored. Since October, large holders have sold about $29 billion worth of Bitcoin. This scale of capital outflow has exerted persistent downward pressure on the market.

Digital asset exchange-traded products (ETPs) have experienced net outflows of about $440 million so far this year. The retreat of institutional funds further weakens buying support.

On-chain data also remains grim. CryptoQuant’s “bullishness score index” is currently only 20 out of 100, described as “extremely bearish territory.”

Options market pricing also shows a clear defensive posture, with traders more willing to pay premiums to hedge against further declines rather than betting on upside.

Technical Analysis

From a technical chart perspective, Bitcoin is at a critical juncture. The price has rebounded from last Friday’s annual low of $59,800 to the current level of $66,900.

Technical indicators show the relative strength index (RSI) has risen from a low of 17 to 35 and is trending upward. The two lines of the stochastic oscillator are also rising, approaching the neutral midpoint of 50.

On the daily chart, Bitcoin has formed a small bullish flag pattern, which is often seen as a continuation signal in technical analysis. This suggests the possibility of testing the $75,000 resistance level in the near term.

However, the market still faces significant challenges. The crypto fear and greed index remains at an extreme fear level of 9. Bitcoin’s trading volume and open interest in futures also remain low.

Market Signals

Market bottoms are often accompanied by extreme sentiment. Recent sharp criticisms of Bitcoin by traditional financial media like the Financial Times may serve as a contrarian indicator.

The FT’s Jemima Kelly bluntly stated, “Bitcoin still remains about $69,000 above its intrinsic value.” Such long-term bearish declarations often appear near market turning points.

Gold bulls and Bitcoin critics like Peter Schiff have also joined the criticism, pointing out that “measured in gold, Bitcoin is in a long-term bear market.”

Meanwhile, efforts to raise capital through Tether seem to face resistance. Reports indicate that investors are resisting a $500 billion valuation, with fundraising likely only reaching around $5 billion, far below the initial target of $15-20 billion.

Cycle Shift

A fundamental change in the Bitcoin market is the possible end of the traditional “four-year cycle” logic. Several institutions, including VanEck, K33 Research, and 21Shares, recently reported that the well-known four-year cycle may have ended.

Instead, the market is increasingly driven by liquidity and capital flows. This means Bitcoin’s price will be more directly influenced by global liquidity changes, real yields, institutional inflows, and stablecoin activity.

For when the current bear market might end, analysts point to three key signals: trend recovery, demand turning point, and normalization of risk appetite.

Trend recovery requires Bitcoin to re-establish and sustain above long-term moving averages (such as the 200-day or 365-day moving average) for several weeks; demand turning point involves ETF and ETP capital flows shifting from flat or negative to sustained inflows; and risk appetite normalization depends on the options market regaining balance, with reduced demand for downside protection.

Summary

As Bitcoin hovers around $67,000, market forecasts show clear divergence. Short-term traders bet on a technical rebound, with a 71% probability of rising to $85,000.

Long-term investors are quietly positioning with more conservative expectations, with a 72% probability of targeting $55,000 by year-end. This divergence reflects the growing pains of market maturity, as traditional cycle theories are being replaced by new logic driven by institutional capital flows.

Market bottoms often form amid extreme bearish sentiment, just as voices claiming “Bitcoin is still about $69,000 above its intrinsic value” begin to dominate media headlines.