Bitcoin drops to $60,000: market bottom or mid-term of the bear market?

Bitcoin briefly dropped to $59,800 on February 6. Although it rebounded afterward, it remains highly volatile around the $70,000 level.

According to Gate’s latest market data on February 11, Bitcoin is currently trading at approximately $67,000, down 3% over the past 24 hours, reflecting market uncertainty amid high volatility.

Market Status: Sharp Fluctuations and Historical Comparison

Over the past month, Bitcoin has experienced a 30% decline, falling from its all-time high of around $126,000 in October 2025 by 45%.

As of February 11, Bitcoin’s price hovers near the key psychological level of $67,000. Recent market analysis indicates that whether Bitcoin can stay above $70,000 will be a crucial short-term indicator of price direction.

Unlike previous bear markets, this correction has not involved major systemic events or structural collapses such as FTX, Luna, or Three Arrows Capital. Bernstein analysts confirm this, calling this the “weakest Bitcoin bear market in history.”

Causes of the Decline: Macro, Policy, and Market Sentiment Resonance

The main reasons for Bitcoin’s recent decline can be summarized into three areas:

Macro political and economic factors have become key forces suppressing risk assets. At the end of January, some U.S. federal agencies entered a technical government shutdown, increasing market tension.

Geopolitical tensions and risk-averse sentiment have driven funds into traditional safe-haven assets like gold and silver, causing Bitcoin, often called “digital gold,” to lag behind. Its inflation hedge narrative has come into question.

Policy uncertainty is another significant factor. The U.S. legislative process for the cryptocurrency market structure, the Clarity Act, has been repeatedly delayed, with the probability dropping sharply from 80% in early January to about 50%, disappointing market expectations.

Is the Bear Market Over Halfway? Market Signals and Expert Divergence

Predictive market data shows traders believe there is a 70% chance Bitcoin will fall below $60,000 in February, a 53% chance it will drop below $57,500, and a 21% chance it will fall below $50,000.

Some analysts think the market may be forming a bottom. Ed Engel, an analyst at Compass Point, states, “The crypto market is in the early stages of bottoming,” noting that last week investors realized about $10 billion in losses, the second-highest since June 2022.

Glassnode analyst Chris Beamish points out that the BTC MVRV Z-Score has compressed to its lowest level since October 2022. Historically, such extreme lows often mark bear market bottoms.

However, bearish views are also worth noting. Michael Burry, the prototype of “The Big Short,” warns that if Bitcoin falls below $50,000, miners could face bankruptcy and be forced to sell their reserves. Burry further states that a drop below $73,000 exposes Bitcoin’s fundamental fragility.

Markus Thielen, founder of 10X Research, believes Bitcoin could further decline to around $50,000.

Long-Term Perspective: Structural Support and Industry Transformation

Despite short-term pressures, Bitcoin’s long-term structural support remains solid.

Bernstein analysts say, “We are experiencing the weakest bear market narrative in Bitcoin’s history.” They see this decline more as a “crisis of confidence” rather than a structural collapse.

The Bernstein team reaffirms their bullish long-term outlook, maintaining a target price of $150,000 by the end of 2026. Tom Lee, co-founder of Fundstrat, also predicts Bitcoin will hit a new all-time high before the end of January 2026.

Notably, articles on Gate about Lee’s forecast mention that while Lee is optimistic about the market before early 2026, internal Fundstrat research indicates a possibility of Bitcoin prices pulling back to the $60,000–$65,000 range from early 2026 to the first half of the year.

Even amid overall market downturns, certain sectors continue to develop. Prediction markets, tokenized real-world assets (RWA), and stablecoins have attracted ongoing investment, with over $500 million in related funding in the past month.

The total market cap of tokenized real-world assets has grown to approximately $15.54 billion, indicating that the trend of bringing real-world assets on-chain persists.

Future Outlook: Opportunities Amid Volatility

Investors should remain cautious but not overly pessimistic about the current market environment. Wintermute believes that compared to previous cycles, the infrastructure of the crypto industry is more robust, stablecoin adoption continues to grow, and institutional interest, while temporarily paused, has not disappeared.

Crypto exchange Gate offers diverse trading tools and risk management products to help investors seize opportunities amid volatility. Gate’s analysis team continuously monitors market dynamics to provide timely, professional insights.

Bernstein analysts suggest that once market conditions improve, institutional attention could quickly rebound. They expect that in the second half of 2026, as macro uncertainties diminish and Federal Reserve policies become clearer, the crypto market may enter a new phase of growth.

Currently, crypto assets are undervalued, potentially offering a window for long-term capital deployment. When market sentiment bottoms out and rebounds, projects and institutions that have built infrastructure during the winter will likely experience their spring.

Summary

Bitcoin’s price trend appears to be diverging from traditional market expectations. According to prediction market data, traders currently see a 70% probability that Bitcoin will fall below $60,000 this month.

However, behind this bearish sentiment lies a profound change in market structure—unlike previous bear markets, there have been no systemic collapses like FTX, no widespread chain reactions, and no industry-wide crises.

As Bitcoin once again dips below the psychological threshold of $70,000, the total crypto market cap has fallen to $2.66 trillion. The market is still seeking balance, and each deep correction is a crucial step toward industry maturity.