Solana (SOL) Price Prediction: Has the rebound path to $100 opened after falling to a two-year low?

Recently, the overall cryptocurrency market has been under pressure, with the price trend of the flagship blockchain Solana (SOL) attracting particular attention. According to Gate market data, as of February 11, 2026, Solana (SOL) has fallen to around $80.83, hitting a nearly two-year low. In the past 24 hours, its price changed by -4.52%, and over the past 30 days, the decline has been as deep as -43.25%. This price level is not only far below its all-time high of $293.31 but also causes SOL’s market capitalization to drop back to $45.73 billion. The market can’t help but wonder: Has Solana bottomed out? What is the future direction?

Recurrent Lows: Crisis or Opportunity?

The current price environment of Solana echoes historical data in an intriguing way. From market sentiment and on-chain data patterns, when the majority of holders are in loss and asset prices are significantly below the market average cost, it often signals that the market may be entering a late-stage correction rather than the start of a decline. Extreme pessimism and widespread unrealized losses can greatly diminish retail investors’ willingness to sell, as “cutting losses” becomes exceedingly difficult. Meanwhile, this “deep undervaluation” state begins to attract long-term value-focused investors and institutions, building a potential bottom zone for the asset.

Solana MVRV Ratio. Source: Glassnode

Looking back at several major corrections in Solana’s history, similar market structures have often been followed by varying degrees of rebound and recovery. This is not to say history will simply repeat itself, but rather that certain supply and demand dynamics follow cyclical patterns.

Technical Analysis and Key Levels: Breaking $90 Opens Up Upside Space

From a purely technical perspective, the current zone between $80 and $85 is a critical battleground for bulls and bears. This area coincides with historical trading clusters and may also align with important Fibonacci retracement levels. For any potential rebound, the immediate and essential resistance to overcome is around $90.

Solana Price Analysis. Source: TradingView

• Upside Scenario: If SOL can break through $90 with increased volume and stabilize above it, this could confirm a reversal of the short-term downtrend. The next key resistance target would be the psychological $100 mark, with further upside potential toward the $105–$110 range. Achieving this path requires overall market sentiment to improve and sustained capital inflows.
• Downside Risks: Conversely, if buying momentum is insufficient to push the price through the resistance, and the price falls back below $80 support, it could trigger another wave of selling, increasing the likelihood of testing $75 or even $70.

Fundamentals and Ecosystem Resilience: Anchoring Long-term Value

Beyond price charts, Solana’s core value lies in its high-speed, low-cost network performance and an active developer ecosystem. Despite market volatility, Solana’s network applications in DeFi, NFTs, and decentralized physical infrastructure networks (DePIN) have not stagnated. The health and innovation capacity of its ecosystem are fundamental to capturing value in the next cycle. Investors should monitor not only price movements but also network activity, total value locked (TVL), and major technological upgrades.

Gate Market Data and Neutral Outlook

Based on Gate’s aggregated market data and predictive models, the neutral outlook for Solana (SOL) is as follows:

As of February 11, 2026, SOL is priced at $80.83 with a 24-hour trading volume of $51.23 million. The model predicts that the average price in 2026 could be around $80.42, with a fluctuation range estimated between a low of $73.98 and a high of $95.69. This suggests that from the current level, if market sentiment improves, a rebound to $95.69 or even $100 is technically plausible.

Looking further ahead, projections indicate that by 2031, Solana’s (SOL) average price could reach approximately $125.4, with a potential upper volatility bound around $168.04. This highlights its possible long-term volatility and growth potential, albeit with significant uncertainty.

Conclusion

In summary, Solana’s price dropping to a two-year low reflects the severe challenges in the current market. However, historical data, on-chain indicators, and technical analysis all suggest that the market may have entered an oversold zone, often a precursor to a turnaround after a sharp decline. A rebound to $100 is not guaranteed and depends critically on breaking through the recent strong resistance at $90 and building sufficient market consensus.

For investors tracking Solana, it is crucial to monitor real-time market data, trading volume, and key support and resistance levels on platforms like Gate. Markets always move in waves; maintaining rationality amid extreme fear, analyzing data for patterns, and understanding the underlying logic behind price movements can better inform decision-making.