Is the bear market only halfway through? Kaiko Research's groundbreaking analysis: $60,000 Bitcoin may be the critical "midpoint"

Since Bitcoin sharply declined to $59,930 in early February 2026, market sentiment has remained in a state of intertwined “neutral” and “extreme panic.” According to Gate market data, as of February 11, 2026, Bitcoin (BTC) is temporarily priced at $66,840.3, down 3.41% in 24 hours, with the monthly decline expanding to 23.78%.

In response to this deep correction, which has exceeded most investors’ expectations, renowned research firm Kaiko Research released a significant report this week. Its core point states: Bitcoin dropping to $60,000 signifies that the current bear market phase is more than halfway over. This conclusion quickly became a central topic within the global crypto community. This article will combine the latest on-chain data, macro trading environment, and Gate platform’s ecosystem progress to present the full logic behind Kaiko’s view and provide a rational outlook on the future market.

Technical Definition of the “Midway” of a Bear Market: From Halving Excitement to Deleveraging Steady State

Kaiko Research explicitly states in the report that since Bitcoin hit a historical high of $126,080 in October 2025, the maximum retracement by early February 2026 has reached 52%. Although a 52% retracement is alarming in absolute terms, Kaiko compared this to historical cycles over the past 12 years and found that in typical Bitcoin bear markets, the average retracement usually ranges between 60% and 68%.

Based on this statistical pattern, Kaiko believes that while the current price around $60,000 is not the absolute bottom, it is a highly symbolic “midway node.” Kaiko further points out that a complete Bitcoin bear cycle generally includes the following three stages:

• Post-halving euphoria: prices peak, retail FOMO reaches its peak (Q4 2025).
• Trend reversal and deleveraging: prices break through key support levels, long positions are liquidated frequently, leverage ratios decline significantly (Q1 2026).
• Long-term accumulation: prices oscillate widely at low levels, high-cost investors gradually rotate positions, laying the groundwork for the next bull run.

Historical chart of Bitcoin halving cycles. Source: Kaiko Research

Kaiko concludes that the market is currently nearing the end of the second stage and is about to transition into the third. This transition typically lasts about 12 months, meaning that for at least the next six months, the main market theme will be “bottoming” rather than “reversal.”

On-Chain and Off-Chain Double Confirmation: Shrinking Trading Volume and Sudden Drop in Open Interest

To substantiate that “the bear market is more than halfway through” is not baseless, Kaiko Research disclosed two highly significant quantitative indicators, which the author cross-verified:

Liquidity Exhaustion in the Spot Market

Kaiko data shows that the combined spot trading volume of the top 10 centralized exchanges (CEXs) has fallen from $1 trillion in October 2025 to $700 billion in November 2025, a decline of 30%. Although Gate platform, with its innovative products like Gate TradFi, has seen trading volume surpass $33 billion despite the downturn, the entire industry is witnessing a clear exit of speculative hot money.

Futures open interest for Bitcoin and Ethereum across top ten exchanges. Data source: Kaiko Research

Massive Deleveraging in Derivatives Market

Another key signal comes from the futures market. The open interest (OI) for Bitcoin and Ethereum futures has decreased from a peak of $29 billion to around $25 billion recently, a 14% drop within a week. Gate observed that since early February, the speed of market leverage liquidations has significantly increased, aligning closely with Kaiko’s characterization of “midway deleveraging” in the bear cycle.

Market Divergence: Is $60,000 the “Bottom” or a “Midway” Point?

While Kaiko prefers to describe the current level as “midway” rather than “bottom,” debates about whether $60,000 is the final bottom remain intense.

Optimistic View (Partial Bottom)

Traders like Michaël van de Poppe, founder of MN Capital, believe that $60,000 constitutes a partial bottom. Their basis is that Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) at $59,930 has fallen to the lowest levels since 2018 and 2020, and such extreme sentiment lows often signal the exhaustion of short-term selling.

Cautious View (Still Need to Find the Bottom)

Kaiko itself remains cautious. The firm notes that if following historical retracement models (60%-68%), Bitcoin’s cycle bottom could be in the $40,000 to $50,000 range. Nansen researcher Nicolai Sondergaard also told Cointelegraph that it’s currently difficult to determine whether the market has fully reverted to the four-year cycle, and volatility remains high.

Gate Analysis

From Gate’s current data, the 200-week moving average (200W MA) for Bitcoin is around $68,400. This level was briefly broken below on February 4 but quickly recovered, indicating strong technical resilience. The $61,467.85 figure, as the lowest expected value in Gate’s 2026 price forecast model, forms a critical psychological support line for the bulls.

Long-Term Outlook and Gate Ecosystem Evolution

Despite the subdued sentiment in the spot market, both Kaiko and Gate do not classify the current phase as a “recession,” but rather as a “valuation reassessment.”

Underlying Value Remains Solid

A recent JPMorgan report indicates that the volatility ratio of Bitcoin to gold has fallen to a historic low of 1.5, implying a long-term fair value of approximately $266,000. While this target is highly unrealistic for the current year, it reflects mainstream financial acknowledgment of Bitcoin as a store of value over the long term.

Gate’s Counter-Cyclical Strategy

In February 2026, amid market pressure, Gate has not slowed its innovation pace. Gate TradFi’s total trading volume has exceeded $33 billion, with peak daily volumes over $6 billion. Its derivatives trading across gold, US stocks, forex, and other assets is becoming a new tool for users to hedge risks associated with single cryptocurrencies. Additionally, the tokenized RWA (Real-World Assets) market has surpassed $10 billion, and Gate believes RWA will become a core growth driver in on-chain finance’s next phase.

Price Analysis and Forecast

According to Gate’s latest market data:

Bitcoin (BTC) real-time data:

• Spot Price: $66,840.3 (24h change -3.41%)
• 24h Trading Volume: $913.27 million
• Market Cap: $1.38 trillion (market share 55.93%)
• All-time High: $126,080 / All-time Low: $67.81

Gate 2026 Price Forecast:

• Minimum expected: $61,467.85
• Maximum expected: $98,762.95
• Average for the year: $69,065

Ethereum (ETH) real-time data:

• Spot Price: $1,946.71 (24h change -3.73%)
• Market Sentiment: Bullish
• Yearly forecast average: $2,095.27

Conclusion

Kaiko Research’s statement that “Bitcoin dropping to $60,000 signifies that the bear market is more than halfway over” is not merely a pessimistic outlook but a data-driven “wake-up call.” It reminds the market that at this stage, preserving capital and allocating to anti-cyclical assets are far more important than blindly guessing the bottom.

For investors, the current strategy should not be to predict “the absolute lowest point,” but rather to use Gate TradFi, RWA, and dollar-cost averaging tools to gradually build long-term positions within the $60,000 to $70,000 range. The bear market is more than halfway through, and while the dawn may still be below the horizon, the time for preparation has already begun.